Trend Analysis

According to nickel price monitoring by SunSirs, nickel prices trended upward with fluctuations last week. As of the end of the week, the spot nickel quotation stood at 144,400.33 RMB/ton—an increase of 0.93% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 15.86%.

According to the weekly price fluctuation chart from SunSirs, over the past 12 weeks, nickel prices declined in six weeks and rose in six weeks; recently, nickel prices have seen a slight uptick.

Macroeconomic Front: The minutes from the April FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, struck a distinctly hawkish tone; several officials called for the removal of language indicating an "accommodative stance," with some even suggesting that if inflation were to persist above 2%, a rate hike could become an appropriate course of action. Market divergence regarding monetary policy has intensified, leading to an uptick in U.S. Treasury yields—a development that, on the whole, is exerting downward pressure on commodity prices.

Supply Side: In April, China's refined nickel output totaled 35,250 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.59% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.29%. For May, China's estimated refined nickel output stands at 33,280 tons, representing a month-on-month decrease of 5.59% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.54%.

Regarding Demand: The demand side shows no signs of significant improvement; downstream sectors are maintaining a pace of strictly need-based purchasing, and overall spot market trading remains sluggish. Overall demand from the electroplating sector is relatively stable, though significant growth is unlikely in the near term. Alloy consumption is gradually recovering, with demand from sectors such as defense and shipbuilding performing well. The stainless steel market remains weak, with limited uptake from end-users. While MHP provides cost support for nickel sulfate, there has been no significant surge in orders for downstream ternary precursors; consequently, nickel sulfate prices are expected to remain largely volatile.

Market outlook

In summary, the broader macroeconomic landscape remains generally weak, while recent policy-related disruptions in Indonesia have notably intensified. Cost support remains evident; fundamental constraints are primarily centered on actual supplies of refined nickel and inventory pressures. Although expectations regarding a shortage of intermediate products have somewhat softened, a rapid recovery in supply remains unlikely in the short term. While recent news flow has provided some impetus to market sentiment, the overall upside potential remains limited; consequently, nickel prices are expected to continue trading within a relatively strong range.

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