According to monitoring data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System: at the beginning of last week, the average domestic price for Grade 1 refined sugar stood at 5,413 RMB/ton; by the end of the week, the average price had fallen to 5,400 RMB/ton—a decline of 0.25%.

Market Analysis

Domestically, ample supply—coupled with high inventory levels—continues to cap the upside potential of the market. Sugar mills in major production regions have largely concluded their crushing seasons, signaling that the peak supply period has passed. Consequently, major sugar-producing groups and distributors in these regions have generally maintained stable pricing, though minor downward adjustments were observed in select local areas. Regarding processed sugar, prices remained relatively firm—supported by raw material costs—with overall price movements remaining minimal. From a fundamental perspective, the abundance of domestic supply continues to exert downward pressure on prices.

Internationally, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) has revised its forecast for the global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season upward—from 1.22 million tons to 2.244 million tons—thereby limiting the upside potential for global sugar prices. However, with the sugar-to-ethanol production ratio in Brazil's new crushing season currently sitting at a multi-year low—and compounded by the climatic effects of El Niño—international sugar prices may experience volatile upward fluctuations, potentially leading to a narrowing of the price spread between domestic and international markets.

Market Outlook

Against the backdrop of abundant domestic sugar supplies and end-users primarily engaging in demand-driven procurement, refined sugar prices are expected to exhibit a predominantly volatile and slightly bearish trend in the short term.

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