Corn: The estimated feed consumption of corn in China for the 2025/26 marketing year has been revised up to 210.90 million tons this month, up 17.40 million tons from the previous month, mainly due to the high capacity of livestock and poultry, the feed consumption is higher than previously expected, and the use of corn in industrial feed has increased significantly; The estimated industrial consumption has been revised down to 81.00 million tons, down 3.50 million tons from the previous month, mainly due to the low profit of deep processing enterprises and the lower than expected startup rate.

The forecast for this month, for the 2026/27 marketing year, China's corn planting area is expected to be 45.133 million hectares, an increase of 1.72 million hectares from the previous year, a growth rate of 0.4%. The main reason is that the planting income of corn was good in the previous year, and the enthusiasm of farmers for planting was high. This year, the meteorological conditions in the main production areas of Northeast China are generally conducive to corn sowing. It is expected that the yield per hectare will be 67.80 kilograms (45.2 kilograms per 667sqm), an increase of 1.2% from the previous year; the total output is expected to be 306 million tons, an increase of 1.6% from the previous year. In terms of demand, the continuous adjustment of pig production capacity is expected to stabilize and slightly decrease the corn feed consumption demand; the demand for downstream processed products is expected to moderately rebound, and the industrial consumption is expected to increase slightly; the total corn consumption for the year is expected to be 311.89 million tons, basically the same as the previous year, and the import volume will continue to remain within the quota.

Soybeans: Since the 2025/26 marketing year, the domestic pig and poultry inventory has continued to be at a historical high, forming a rigid demand for soybean meal, and the import volume and crushing volume have exceeded expectations. This month, it is estimated that the soybean import volume for the 2025/26 marketing year will be 103 million tons, up 7.5 million tons from the previous month; the crushing consumption volume is 101 million tons, up 7.2 million tons from the previous month.

The current period is the key time for the spring sowing of soybeans in the Northeast production area, and the temperature and soil moisture are generally conducive to sowing. Since the planting benefit of soybeans is lower than that of corn, the enthusiasm of farmers for planting has slightly decreased, and the preliminary estimate is that the soybean area in the main production area will remain stable or slightly decrease. The forecast for this month is that for the 2026/27 marketing year, China's soybean planting area will be 10.193 million hectares, a decrease of 0.6% from the previous marketing year; the yield will be 2,055 kilograms per hectare, an increase of 0.8% from the previous marketing year; and the total production will remain above 20 million tons. The number of breeding pigs has been decreasing for many months, and the pig production capacity is gradually returning to a reasonable range, which has led to a corresponding reduction in the demand for soybean meal. It is expected that the import volume and crushing volume of soybeans in the 2026/27 marketing year will be lower than the previous year; driven by the enhanced awareness of residents' health, the consumption of domestic soybeans for food is expected to remain stable or increase. It is expected that the annual soybean import volume will be 95.5 million tons, a decrease of 7.6% from the previous year; the consumption volume will be 114 million tons, a decrease of 6.1% from the previous year.

Cotton: The supply and demand situation of cotton for the 2025/26 marketing year is estimated to be consistent with last month. According to the monitoring of the China Cotton Network, as of May 7, the cumulative sales rate of cotton nationwide has reached 91.6%, an increase of 14.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and an increase of 29.7 percentage points compared to the average of the past four years. The domestic textile industry has entered the off-season, the orders from the terminal market are stable but weak, the spinning enterprises purchase more rationally, and mainly supplement the inventory according to the demand; the international market is affected by the drought in the cotton area of the United States, the global supply is expected to be tightened, and the cotton price is running at a high level.

The forecast for this month is that for the 2026/27 season, China's cotton planting area will be 27.53 million hectares, a decrease of 7.6% compared to the previous season; the yield will be 2,235 kilograms per hectare (149 kilograms per 667sqm), an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous season; the production will be 6.15 million tons, a decrease of 7.4% compared to the previous season; the consumption will be 7.8 million tons, the same as the previous season. Cotton planting in Xinjiang has basically been completed, and the climate is suitable for the growth of cotton seedlings. According to the China Cotton Information Network, as of May 4th, the cotton emergence rate in the whole Xinjiang region was 89.0%, which was 2.8 percentage points faster than the same period last year.

Edible vegetable oil: It is estimated that in the 2025/26 marketing year, China's edible vegetable oil production will be 32.23 million tons, an increase of 1.19 million tons over the previous marketing year, including an increase of 0.79 million tons in soybean oil production, mainly due to the increase in soybean import volume and crushing volume; a decrease of 0.17 million tons in rapeseed oil production, mainly due to the decrease in rapeseed import volume; an increase of 0.16 million tons in peanut oil production, mainly due to the increase in peanut production and import volume; and an increase of 0.18 million tons in other edible vegetable oil production such as sesame oil and rice bran oil. Most of the rapeseed production areas have suitable soil moisture conditions, but the soil in southern Hubei and central Hunan is too wet, and field management needs to be strengthened, channels need to be dredged in time, and risks such as rapeseed lodging, mature rapeseed harvesting and drying difficulties, and seed germination and mildew should be prevented. The edible vegetable oil consumption volume in the 2025/26 marketing year is 38 million tons, a decrease of 0.13 million tons over the previous marketing year, mainly due to the decrease in household consumption volume.

The monthly forecast shows that in the 2026/27 marketing year, China's edible vegetable oil production is expected to be 31.41 million tons, a decrease of 8.2 million tons from the previous year. Among them, the production of soybean oil is expected to be 17.17 million tons, a decrease of 1.36 million tons from the previous year, mainly due to the decrease in soybean imports compared to the previous year. The production of peanut oil is expected to be 4.17 million tons, an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous year, and it is expected that both peanut production and imports will increase. Due to factors such as the decrease in the total population and the promotion of healthy consumption concepts such as "less oil and less salt," it is expected that the annual edible vegetable oil consumption will be 37.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous year.

Sugar: The production forecast for China's sugar in the 2025/26 marketing year has been revised up by 3.0 million tons to 12.80 million tons this month. The main reason is that the weather in the main producing areas such as Guangxi is favorable, and the sugar content of sugarcane is higher than expected.

The forecast for this month, for the 2026/27 marketing year, is that China's sugarcane planting area will be 14.61 million hectares, an increase of 1.5% over the previous marketing year, mainly due to the relatively good comparative benefits of sugarcane cultivation and the high enthusiasm of farmers; China's sugarcane yield will be 60.92 tons per hectare, an increase of 0.61% over the previous marketing year, mainly due to the continuous promotion of high-yielding sugarcane varieties and other technical measures in the main producing areas such as Guangxi, which have promoted the steady improvement of yield; considering that the sugar content of sugarcane may decrease due to the impact of climate, the expected sugar production is 12.93 million tons, an increase of 1.0% over the previous marketing year. Affected by the repeated fermentation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the international oil price is fluctuating at a high level, the sugar-making ratio of Brazil's new crushing season is at a low level in recent years, combined with the El Nino climate impact, the international sugar price may fluctuate and recover, and the domestic and foreign price difference is expected to narrow. It is expected that China's sugar import volume in the 2026/27 marketing year will be 4.8 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons over the previous marketing year; the sugar consumption situation remains basically stable, and the consumption volume is flat to slightly increased to 15.73 million tons.

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