Recently, the polysilicon market has exhibited a pattern of "weak equilibrium," characterized by cooling policy expectations, unabated supply pressure, and sluggish demand recovery. Prices are oscillating near the cost line; high inventory levels and excess production capacity continue to weigh on the market, making it difficult to reverse this weak trend in the short term.
I. Recent Trends and Spot Market Analysis
In April, driven by industry policies aimed at curbing "excessive internal competition," polysilicon prices experienced a temporary rebound, with spot prices briefly climbing above 42,000 RMB/ton. However, entering May, the positive impact of these policies gradually dissipated. The fundamental imbalance—characterized by ample supply and weak demand—once again came to the fore, causing prices to retreat steadily and settle into a pattern of narrow-range fluctuation.
As of May 19, trading activity in the polysilicon spot market remained sluggish, and the scope for price negotiation widened. Mainstream spot quotes were as follows: N-type polysilicon (re-melt grade) at 34,000–36,000 RMB/ton; P-type dense polysilicon at 33,000–34,500 RMB/ton; and granular silicon at 33,000–35,500 RMB/ton. These prices are now hovering close to the industry's cash cost line.
SunSirs Benchmark Price (May 19): 35,866.67 RMB/ton—unchanged from the beginning of the month. The price has maintained a low, sideways trajectory over the past week, reflecting a strong "wait-and-see" sentiment within the market.
II. Upstream Raw Materials and Downstream Product Prices
Upstream Raw Materials
Industrial silicon prices are oscillating at low levels, with mainstream quotes ranging from 8,900 to 9,200 RMB/ton. Production restarts in the Southwest region—coinciding with the high-water season—have released additional supply; this ample supply is suppressing prices and providing only limited cost support for polysilicon production. Prices for chlor-alkali products remain stable, with minimal fluctuation in quotes for liquid chlorine and caustic soda, thereby keeping cost-side pressure on polysilicon production relatively mild. Downstream Products
Silicon wafer prices continue to weaken; quotes for 182mm N-type wafers range from 0.94 to 0.98 RMB per piece, while 210mm wafers are quoted at 1.08 to 1.10 RMB per piece. Operating rates remain around 75%, and production scheduling remains cautious. Prices for solar cells and modules are under simultaneous pressure; mainstream module quotes range from 0.70 to 0.72 RMB per watt. Overseas order prices are on the lower side, and domestic downstream demand remains insufficient.
III. Downstream Procurement Activity (Domestic and International)
Domestic Market
Downstream wafer manufacturers are focusing primarily on purchasing to meet immediate operational needs; their willingness to build inventory is weak, resulting in generally moderate procurement activity. Wafer inventory levels remain high—standing at approximately 26.02 GW as of mid-May—marking a slight month-over-month increase. Faced with pressure to destock, companies are cautious regarding new orders, which consist mostly of small-batch or short-term contracts.
International Market
Overseas procurement demand remains stable. Buyers in Europe and Southeast Asia are purchasing on an "as-needed" basis; they exhibit high price sensitivity, leaving limited room for price premiums. In regions such as the United States, persistent trade barriers continue to have an impact, resulting in insufficient growth in export orders. Consequently, international procurement activity remains moderate and fails to provide any significant upward momentum for the market.
IV. Downstream Product Sales Performance
Overall sales of downstream products remain sluggish. The pace of shipments for wafers, cells, and modules is slow. Domestic downstream PV installation demand has fallen short of expectations; the growth rate for distributed PV installations has slowed, and the rollout of centralized utility-scale projects has proceeded at a slower-than-anticipated pace. On the export front, module export volumes saw a slight month-over-month recovery; however, intense price competition has squeezed profit margins, leaving the sales side without strong underlying support.
V. Current Status of Supply and Inventory
On the supply side, domestic polysilicon production capacity currently stands at approximately 3.5 million tons. Given that global demand for 2026 is projected to be only 1.35 to 1.5 million tons, the supply surplus exceeds 100%. In May, the industry's operating rate hovered around 60%, yielding a monthly output of approximately 83,000 tons; consequently, supply-side pressure persists. Regarding inventory, polysilicon manufacturers hold stockpiles totaling approximately 313,000 tons—a slight month-over-month increase—with these high inventory levels effectively capping any potential rebound in prices. VI. Future Outlook:
On the supply side, persistently high operating rates and inventory levels continue to exert downward pressure; meanwhile, demand recovery remains sluggish, leaving prices with insufficient momentum for a rebound. However, support exists near the cost line, limiting the potential for a sharp decline; prices are expected to gradually stabilize and begin to recover only as marginal improvements in demand emerge.
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