Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, seamless tube prices edged upward last week. As of the end of the week, the price for 20# (108*4.5) seamless tubes stood at 4,104 RMB/ton—an increase of 0.29% from the beginning of the week and 0.17% year-on-year.

Market Analysis

Last week, the market for hot rolled tube billets remained largely stable, although the direction and magnitude of price fluctuations varied across different production regions. Currently, the ex-factory quoted price for 20# hot rolled tube billets ranges from 3,400 to 3,530 RMB/ton.

The total inventory of tube billets at tube mills reached 288,200 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared to two weeks ago; meanwhile, the inventory of seamless tubes at these mills stood at 401,200 tons, up 3,600 tons from two weeks prior. This trend of slight inventory accumulation persists primarily because current downstream demand remains insufficient, causing tube mills to slow the pace of their shipments. Concurrently, as some mills maintain their normal production schedules, a modest buildup of inventory has occurred. This situation aligns with the broader trend of decelerating inventory destocking across the domestic steel market; it also reflects a slight increase in destocking pressure on tube mills, indicating that the industry's fundamental imbalance of "supply exceeding demand" is unlikely to be reversed in the short term.

Market Outlook

Overall, the steel billet market is operating with stable pricing and reasonable regional price spreads. The futures market has experienced a slight correction, reflecting a cautious sentiment. The raw materials market remains stable yet differentiated, providing strong cost support. Downstream trading in the seamless steel tube sector shows only narrow fluctuations, driven primarily by immediate, essential demand. Consequently, the market as a whole is currently in a consolidation phase characterized by a weak equilibrium between supply and demand. In the short term, seamless steel tube prices are expected to see only limited upward or downward movement.

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