Price Trends

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic PTA market has generally exhibited a weak trend since the beginning of May. As of May 17, the average spot price for PTA in the East China region stood at 6,573 RMB/ton, representing a decline of 4.29% compared to the start of the month. Early in the month, prices saw a modest uptick—briefly surging to the vicinity of 6,700 RMB/ton—bolstered by cost support from PX and the positive impact of large-scale PTA plant maintenance shutdowns. However, prices subsequently retreated amidst fluctuations, driven by persistently sluggish demand from downstream polyester and end-use textile sectors, compounded by a decline in crude oil premiums resulting from easing geopolitical tensions.

Market analysis

Supply has contracted sharply; the April–June period marks the peak season for annual PTA maintenance, with the scale of maintenance in May reaching a multi-year high. Planned maintenance involved a capacity of 18.1 million tons, while an additional 5 million tons of capacity underwent unplanned maintenance, with only 1.2 million tons resuming operations. By mid-May, the industry's operating rate had fallen to approximately 63%—a low not seen in recent years—significantly tightening supply. Concurrently, processing margins continued to recover, narrowing factory losses and reinforcing the willingness to undertake passive production cuts and maintenance, thereby providing fundamental support for prices.

However, on the cost side, crude oil and PX prices are fluctuating at high levels, offering only limited support. Crude oil prices are undergoing volatile adjustments; as of May 14, the settlement price for the June contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $101.17 per barrel, while the settlement price for the July contract of Brent crude oil futures was $105.72 per barrel. In Asia, simultaneous maintenance shutdowns for PX facilities have tightened supply and established a solid cost floor; however, the momentum for cost pass-through downstream remains insufficient. Consequently, these factors can merely limit the downside potential for PTA, making it difficult to drive any substantial price rallies.

Demand remains persistently weak, with the operating rate in the downstream polyester sector standing at only 81%—a significant year-on-year decline. Insufficient orders for end-use weaving products and high inventories of finished goods have prompted polyester manufacturers to voluntarily scale back production; consequently, purchasing driven by immediate necessities remains subdued. Although orders for the autumn/winter season and export markets began to pick up gradually in late May, a significant improvement is unlikely in the short term.

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