Recently, the PA6 market has exhibited a weak and volatile trend, with its price center of gravity shifting slightly downward. According to data from SunSirs, the reference price on May 14 stood at 13,166.67 RMB/ton—a decrease of 1.74% compared to the 13,400.00 RMB/ton recorded on May 1—indicating a continuation of the short-term downward correction trend. Current prices sit within the upper-to-middle range of the one-year statistical cycle, having retreated approximately 1,433 RMB/ton from the year's high of 14,600 RMB/ton.

II. Analysis of Causes

From the perspective of production costs, the price of the core raw material—caprolactam—has weakened significantly, thereby eroding cost-side support. On May 11, Sinopec announced its weekly settlement price for caprolactam at 12,520 RMB/ton—a substantial reduction of 1,130 RMB/ton from the previous period. The weekly average spot price for caprolactam in East China has retreated to 12,350 RMB/ton; this marked alleviation of cost-side pressure constitutes a bearish factor for PA6.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall operating rates of PA6 production facilities remain at high levels. The release of new production capacity, coupled with the resumption of facilities previously under maintenance, has driven an increase in supply. Manufacturers demonstrate a strong willingness to ship inventory; "negotiation on actual orders" is a common practice, and actual transaction prices frequently fall below quoted prices. Downstream sectors—specifically the textile and chemical fiber industries—show low tolerance for high raw material prices. Their procurement strategies are primarily driven by "replenishing strictly for immediate needs" and "buying on an as-needed basis," with no signs of concentrated stockpiling. Consequently, the trading atmosphere remains cautious, resulting in generally sluggish market activity.

III. Short-Term Outlook

In summary, PA6 prices are unlikely to exhibit a unidirectional trend in the short term. Market movements will primarily fluctuate in response to changes in raw material prices and the downstream sectors' willingness to replenish inventory. The overall market is expected to display a "weak-but-stable, slightly bearish, and narrowly volatile" pattern. Based on price forecasts from SunSirs, the benchmark price is projected to fluctuate within the range of 13,000 to 13,300 RMB/ton.

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