The current global bitumen market is characterized by strong cost pressures, tightening supply and weak demand. International crude oil prices are fluctuating at high levels due to geopolitical tensions. Increased losses at domestic refineries have led to a significant reduction in bitumen production schedules, whilst social inventories continue to be drawn down. However, the peak season for road construction has failed to materialize as expected, and high prices are dampening downstream purchasing sentiment. The market is caught between cost support and weak demand, maintaining an overall pattern of consolidation at elevated levels.

I. Export Data: Structural Optimization in Q1; Southeast Asia Emerges as Core Market

Customs data indicates that from January to March 2026, China’s exports of bitumen and modified bitumen products totaled 236,000 tons, representing an 11.8% year-on-year increase from the 211,000 tons recorded during the same period in 2025. The average export price remained stable at US$375 per ton. Exports dipped briefly to 59,500 tons in February due to the Spring Festival, but rebounded rapidly in March as overseas infrastructure demand picked up. Export destinations were highly concentrated in Southeast Asia, with Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand ranking as the top three markets. Vietnam accounted for over 40% of the total, whilst exports to Malaysia and Thailand surged by 103% and 5,525% year-on-year respectively. The Indian market contracted significantly, indicating a continued optimization of the export structure.

II. May Capacity and Supply: Production Plans Significantly Reduced; Utilization Rates at Historic Lows

Domestic bitumen supply contracted significantly in May, with planned production for the month at 1.279 million tons—a 16.2% month-on-month decrease and a sharp 48.9% year-on-year decline, reaching a low for the same period in recent years. Industry capacity utilization stood at merely 19%–21%. Major refineries underwent widespread maintenance or shutdowns, whilst independent refineries voluntarily reduced output due to production losses, resulting in a continued tightening of effective supply. Social inventories continued to decline, although refinery inventories accumulated slightly; overall inventories remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period over the past five years, with the supply side providing strong support for prices.

III. Today’s Price Trends and Fluctuations (14 May)

The domestic asphalt spot market remained stable today, with regional variations. Quotations across regions showed no significant fluctuations compared to yesterday. Midstream and downstream players procured on an as-needed basis, and market transactions were steady.

SunSirs Benchmark Price: 4,350.00 RMB/ton, up 0.46% on the day.

Mainstream Quotations: Shandong 4,370 RMB/ton, East China 4,600 RMB/ton, North China 4,350 RMB/ton, South China 4,530 RMB/ton, Southwest China 4,580 RMB/ton, Northwest China 4,650 RMB/ton, Northeast China 4,450 RMB/ton

Price Movement: The market opened slightly higher in early trading, influenced by fluctuations in crude oil prices, before stabilizing. It traded within a narrow range throughout the day, with a strong sense of market caution prevailing.

IV. Upstream and Downstream Prices and Cost Dynamics

Upstream crude oil serves as the core cost support. On 13 May, WTI crude stood at US$101.02 per barrel and Brent crude at US$105.63 per barrel. These high prices have driven up asphalt production costs, with refineries continuing to operate at a loss and showing a strong willingness to maintain prices. Downstream road construction utilization rates stood at just 18–19%, below historical averages. Heavy rainfall in the south, slow resumption of work in the north, and the dampening effect of high prices have resulted in under-realized demand; whilst demand in sectors such as waterproofing membranes remains stable, this is insufficient to offset the weakness in road-use bitumen, with transactions driven primarily by essential demand.

V. Forecast for Future Trends

Short Term (Mid-to-late May): Cost-driven + tight supply + subdued demand; bitumen prices are expected to remain at elevated levels with narrow fluctuations, trading within a range of 4,300–4,650 RMB/ton. Geopolitical premiums on crude oil persist, providing strong cost support; refinery production schedules remain low, with supply contraction continuing; road construction is progressing gradually but at a limited pace. The pattern of weak supply and demand is unlikely to change, with prices primarily tracking crude oil fluctuations.

Medium term (June): As the rainy season in the south ends and the peak construction season in the north gets fully underway, demand is expected to be released in a concentrated manner. Coupled with low supply levels, the supply-demand balance is set to improve marginally. Prices may fluctuate with a bullish bias, with the centre of gravity shifting slightly upwards. If crude oil remains at high levels, the probability of prices breaking through the upper limit of the range increases; if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall, the scope for price corrections will also be limited, with solid support at the bottom.

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