From May 11 to 13, prices for polyester filament trended downward. Driven by the combined impact of four key factors—price cuts by leading enterprises, weakening cost support, persistently sluggish downstream demand, and pressure from high inventory levels—market trading remained lackluster. Transactions were dominated by small-volume orders driven by immediate necessities, resulting in an overall market landscape characterized by apparent stability but underlying decline—a pattern of weak, gradual erosion.
1) Benchmark Prices (Mainstream Spot Market — Zhejiang/Jiangsu)
• POY 150D/48F: 8,550–8,600 RMB/ton
• FDY 150D/96F: 8,900–9,000 RMB/ton
• DTY 150D/48F: 9,700–9,800 RMB/ton
2) Cumulative Decline Over the Past Three Days (May 11 – May 13)
• POY: Approx. -200 RMB/ton
• FDY: -200 to -300 RMB/ton
• DTY: Approx. -200 RMB/ton
3) Transaction Characteristics (Crucial)
• Quoted prices have been lowered, with actual transaction prices seeing further concessions of 50–150; a trend of nominal stability masking underlying price declines is widespread.
• Transactions are dominated by small-volume purchases driven by immediate, essential needs; large-volume orders are extremely rare, and downstream buyers are only replenishing inventory sufficient for one or two days' consumption.
• DTY sales performance is the weakest, reflecting the lowest level of confidence within the texturizing-to-weaving supply chain.
Driving Factors
1. Leading Enterprises Proactively Cut Prices; Market Sentiment Weakens Sharply
• On May 12, Rongsheng (including Shengyuan) implemented across-the-board price cuts of 100–200 RMB/ton, with DTY leading the decline.
• Once the market leader lowered prices, small and medium-sized manufacturers—unable to hold their ground—were forced to passively follow suit, triggering a "price-cutting stampede."
• The Underlying Cause: Major manufacturers are also grappling with elevated inventory levels; by cutting prices first to boost sales volume, they effectively offload their inventory pressure onto their competitors.
2. Softening Support from the Cost Side
PTA (Today's Spot Price: 6,636 RMB/ton; down 3.37% from the beginning of the month)
• Crude oil retreats from high levels → PX weakens → PTA prices trend downward, and the cost floor gradually shifts lower.
• However, numerous PX maintenance shutdowns persist across Asia; consequently, the decline in PTA prices remains limited and moderate—it is a gradual dip, not a crash.
• Conclusion: Cost-side support remains in place, but it is insufficient to counteract weak demand; prices are therefore compelled to follow the downward trend.
MEG (Monoethylene Glycol)
• Remains persistently weak; spot prices hover around 4,875 RMB/ton, trading within a narrow, low-range band.
• Contributes minimally to polyester production costs, acting as a minor, ancillary drag.
3. The fundamental reason for this round of decline is the "precipitous weakening" of end-user demand.
Weaving Sector
• Loom utilization rate stands at approximately 60%, compared to 75–80% during the same period in previous years.
• Characterized by scarce orders, short lead times, and razor-thin margins, weaving mills are reluctant to stockpile raw materials; instead, they operate on a "buy-as-you-go" basis.
• External Demand: Orders from Europe and the U.S. continue to decline, with prices driven down to extremely low levels; consequently, some orders are shifting toward Southeast Asia.
Texturizing Sector
• Texturizing plants are operating at over 70% capacity; however, inventory levels remain high, and shipments are sluggish.
• DTY represents the stage closest to the end-market; consequently, weak demand is reflected first in falling DTY prices and stagnant sales.
In a nutshell, the demand situation is as follows: the anticipated peak season has completely failed to materialize. The traditional "Golden March and Silver April" period has instead turned into a "Weak March and Dull April," with conditions remaining sluggish throughout May.
4. High Inventory + Ample Supply: Prices Are "Prone to Falling, Hard to Rise"
Inventory (Industry Average)
• POY: 30–35 days (Normal range: 20–25 days)
• DTY: 35–45 days; for some major manufacturers, levels exceed 50 days, placing them under immense pressure.
• Inventory levels are expected to surge further in mid-to-late May, leaving enterprises with no choice but to cut prices in order to clear stock.
Supply Side
• Polyester operating rates hover around 80%; production cuts remain insufficient, resulting in continued oversupply.
• New production facilities are still coming online, making it difficult to alter the prevailing landscape of loose supply-demand fundamentals.
Summary and Market Outlook
• Summary: From May 12 to May 13, the polyester filament market exhibited a weak pattern characterized by "leading players driving the decline, spot prices adjusting in tandem, and sluggish trading activity." DTY prices recorded the sharpest declines, reflecting the combined impact of weak downstream demand, inventory pressure, and insufficient cost support.
Market Outlook:
Short Term (Mid-to-Late May — June): Weak bottoming-out; slight downward drift.
• Core Assessment: The market is expected to continue its weak, volatile trend—primarily in a bottom-seeking phase—with little likelihood of a rebound; the price center of gravity may drift lower by another 200–500 RMB/ton.
• Price Range (Mainstream)
◦ POY (150D): 8,200–8,500 RMB/ton
◦ FDY (150D): 8,600–8,900 RMB/ton
◦ DTY (150D): 9,400–9,700 RMB/ton
• Driving Factors
◦ Weakening Cost Support: Crude oil prices have retreated from recent highs, and PTA markets remain soft; consequently, polyester production costs are trending downward, with the full impact of this cost transmission expected to materialize within a 10–15 day cycle.
◦ Persistently Weak Demand: The anticipated "Golden March and Silver April" peak season failed to materialize; weaving mill operating rates currently hover at a mere 60–70%, and with insufficient order volumes and weak willingness to restock, a negative feedback loop continues to persist.
◦ High Inventory Pressure: Polyester filament inventories currently stand at 30–45 days' worth of supply—a level that may peak in mid-to-late May—leading to an increase in instances where producers are cutting prices to facilitate sales and clear stock.
◦ Limited Impact of Production Cuts: Although production rates have been reduced to below 70% of capacity, these cuts are proving insufficient to offset the fundamental lack of firm demand, leaving the market struggling to find a floor and halt its decline.
SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.
SunSirs: Dimethyl carbonate fluctuated at a low level
Price Trends
According to monitoring data from SunSirs, during the first half of May, the market for industrial-grade dimethyl carbonate (DMC) exhibited a pattern of continuous decline and low-level fluctuation. As of May 13, the average domestic price for industrial-grade DMC stood at 3,833 yuan per ton, representing a 2.54% decrease compared to the beginning of the month. Overall market performance remained weak, with fundamentals facing significant pressure, while technical indicators entered an oversold, bottom-building phase.
Fundamental Analysis
Supply Side: Plant restarted; inventory levels were elevated
Following the post-holiday return to work, the restart of numerous production units has driven the industry operating rate back above 66%. With an increase in spot market circulation, overall supply conditions remain relatively ample.
Enterprises have seen an accumulation of inventory and demonstrate a strong desire to destock; consequently, the practice of offering price concessions to facilitate shipments has become widespread.
Demand Side: Driven Primarily by Essential Needs; Procurement Remained Cautious
Electrolyte: Orders from downstream new energy sectors remain lackluster; electrolyte manufacturers are procuring strictly on an "as-needed" basis and aggressively pushing for lower prices, resulting in a month-on-month decline in procurement volumes.
Polycarbonate (PC): The industry is characterized by high production capacity and thin profit margins; operating rates remain low, leading to persistently weak demand for DMC.
Traditional Demand (Coatings & Adhesives): Procurement is limited to essential restocking needs; buyers remain intent on driving down prices, with the majority of transactions involving lower-priced supplies.
Exports: The fulfillment of previous orders is winding down, while the inflow of new orders remains insufficient, resulting in a diminished contribution from the export market.
Cost Front: Raw Materials Weak; Insufficient Support
Propylene Oxide (PO):
Loss of Cost Support: When PO prices rose, DMC prices failed to follow suit; this indicates that weak demand made it difficult for manufacturers to pass on cost pressures, leaving them with no choice but to passively sacrifice margins in order to move inventory.
Downward Cost Trend Creates Headroom: The subsequent sharp decline in PO prices further lowered the cost floor for DMC. This created room for prices to continue their downward trajectory while simultaneously stripping high-cost production facilities of any incentive to hold firm on pricing.
Methanol
The sharp decline in methanol prices has directly lowered the production costs of coal-based DMC, leading to an influx of low-priced supplies into the market and intensifying the price war.
The fact that the decline in DMC prices was less pronounced than that of methanol indicates that the cost advantages resulting from the drop in methanol prices were not translated into corporate profits; instead, the entire benefit was passed on to downstream customers.
Market Outlook:
Current market fundamentals remain relatively weak; with ample supply and a lack of concentrated demand surges, it is unlikely that the market will develop a sustained, trend-driven rally. However, from a technical perspective, downward momentum is waning, and prices are hovering at multi-cycle lows. Furthermore, as spot prices approach the industry's production cost threshold—raising expectations that high-cost facilities may cut or limit output—bottom-side support is gradually emerging. Consequently, during the latter half of May, industrial-grade dimethyl carbonate (DMC) is expected to primarily fluctuate within a low range as it establishes a market bottom. While there may be opportunities for minor, technical rebounds during this period, the strength of such rallies is likely to be limited; prices will remain capped by moving averages and prevailing trading sentiment, making any substantial upward surge unlikely.
SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.
