As of May 13, 2026, the Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) market is characterized by surging exports, peaking production capacity, cost-side support, and low-level price fluctuations. Exports in the first quarter reached a historical high, serving as the primary driver for inventory destocking; meanwhile, domestic capacity expansion has stalled, and supply has contracted due to the scheduled maintenance season. With carbide costs holding firm at a bottom, weak domestic demand has limited the potential for a price rebound; consequently, the market is expected to maintain a weak equilibrium between supply and demand in the short term, with prices oscillating within a specific range.

I. Export Data: Volume and Price Rise in Tandem in Q1; Overseas Demand Remains Robust

According to customs data, exports within the Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) and PVC industry chain witnessed substantial growth from January to March 2026. Cumulative exports of pure PVC powder reached 1.4169 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.13%; exports in March alone totaled 684,000 tons—up 86.7% year-on-year—setting a new historical record for a single month. In comparison, cumulative exports during the same period last year stood at 976,000 tons, with 366,000 tons exported in March. In the first quarter of this year, both export volume and average price rose simultaneously, with the average export price reaching $651 per ton. VCM monomers also benefited from tariff reductions, with exports to the six ASEAN nations reaching 286,000 tons in the first quarter—a 19.3% increase year-on-year. Major export destinations included India, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan, with India accounting for over 40% of the total volume. The exit of high-cost production capacity overseas has widened the global supply deficit; this factor—combined with a surge in "rush exports" triggered by the scheduled cancellation of export tax rebates starting in April—has bolstered the resilience of export performance.

II. Recent Capacity Trends: The Tail End of the Expansion Cycle; Maintenance Leads to Supply Contraction

Domestic PVC production capacity has entered a plateau phase. As of the end of March 2026, total annual capacity stood at 29.115 million tons; no new capacity additions are scheduled to come online in 2026, while only a small amount of outdated capacity is expected to be retired. The industry's operating rate currently hovers around 71.87%. With the arrival of the spring maintenance season in May, both carbide-based and ethylene-based production facilities are simultaneously scaling back operating loads, thereby alleviating pressure on supply. In the global landscape, China accounts for nearly 47% of total production capacity. High-cost production facilities in Europe and the U.S. continue to shut down, and the resulting contraction in overseas supply bodes well for the competitiveness of domestic exports. From a long-term perspective, the cycle of capacity expansion has concluded; the optimization of existing capacity has become the dominant theme, while supply-side elasticity remains limited.

III. Price Trends: Low-Level Volatility; Benchmark Prices Stabilize

In 2026, PVC prices are expected to follow a trajectory characterized by an initial rise followed by a decline, settling into a pattern of low-level volatility. In the first quarter, driven by rising costs and strong export performance, prices surged to a high of 6,000 RMB/ton. However, after April—following the implementation of changes to export tax rebates and a weakening of domestic demand—prices retreated to the vicinity of 5,000 RMB/ton. As of May 13, the SunSirs PVC benchmark price stood at 4,935.00 RMB/ton, with prices fluctuating within the 4,900–5,100 RMB/ton range throughout the week.

The core drivers behind these price fluctuations are the interplay between export support and supply contraction (due to facility maintenance) on one side, and weak domestic demand on the other. Traders are largely following market trends, and market transactions are predominantly driven by rigid, essential demand.

IV. Upstream and Downstream Prices: Carbide Costs Provide Support; Downstream Demand Remains Sluggish

Upstream, the price of the raw material calcium carbide remains stable; in early May, the mainstream ex-factory price was approximately 3,800 RMB/ton. As calcium carbide accounts for over 60% of PVC production costs, this provides a floor of support for the cost side. Meanwhile, raw materials for the ethylene-based production method face significant cost pressure due to elevated crude oil prices, leading to an increase in instances where production facilities are operating at reduced loads. In the downstream sector, the real estate market remains in a prolonged slump, resulting in a contraction in completed construction projects. Consequently, manufacturers of pipes and profiles are facing insufficient order volumes and operating at relatively low utilization rates. Orders for exported PVC products, however, remain reasonably robust, serving to partially offset the shortfall in domestic demand. Prices for downstream PVC products fluctuate in tandem with raw material costs; processing fees remain stable, and the price spread is being maintained within a reasonable range.

V. Future Outlook: Volatility Persists; Awaiting Demand Recovery

Looking ahead, the PVC market is expected to maintain its pattern of low-level volatility through May and June of 2026. On the supply side, spring maintenance shutdowns are ongoing, keeping operating rates relatively low and resulting in a contraction of supply. On the demand side, order volumes have retreated following the cancellation of export tax rebates, while the traditional "off-season" for the real estate sector continues to drag down domestic demand; furthermore, high inventory levels are acting as a ceiling, suppressing any potential price rebound. On the cost side, calcium carbide prices remain stable, thereby providing a supportive floor for the market. Overall, the short-term price range is expected to hover between 4,800 and 5,200 RMB/ton, characterized primarily by sideways consolidation. In the medium to long term—driven by persistent overseas supply deficits and the continued depletion of domestic inventories, coupled with marginal improvements in real estate policies—prices are poised for a volatile rebound; however, a substantial upward surge will require a tangible recovery in domestic demand.

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