DOP Plasticizer Prices Fluctuated Downward after the holiday

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of May 12, the price of DOP stood at 10,000.83 RMB/ton. This represents a volatile decline of 0.99% compared to the price of 10,100.83 RMB/ton recorded on May 6. Throughout May, the DOP market generally exhibited a trend of high-level, narrow-range fluctuation and weak consolidation; while the price center of gravity shifted slightly downward compared to April, it remained at a relatively high level for the year. The core underlying factors driving this trend were diminishing cost support, a loose supply-demand balance, and weak rigid demand from downstream sectors.

Cost Side: Support from Raw Materials Weakened

Post-Holiday, Raw Material Isooctanol Prices Rose Initially, Then Fell

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of May 12, the quoted price for isooctanol stood at 8,766.67 RMB/ton. Compared to the price of 8,800 RMB/ton on May 1, the market experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, resulting in a decrease of 0.38%; compared to the price of 9,066.67 RMB/ton on May 9, the market trended downward amidst fluctuations, recording a drop of 3.31%. Following the holiday period, propylene prices trended downward amidst fluctuations, leading to a reduction in isooctanol production costs. Furthermore, post-holiday reductions in operating rates among isooctanol manufacturers resulted in a temporary tightening of supply. Consequently, isooctanol prices in May followed a trajectory of rising first before falling; overall, the cost support for isooctanol has marginally weakened since the holiday, leaving insufficient support for a rise in DOP prices.

Phthalic Anhydride Market Trended Downward Amidst Fluctuations

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of May 12, the quoted price for OX-based phthalic anhydride stood at 8,910 RMB/ton. This represents a slight decline of 0.26% compared to the price of 8,933.33 RMB/ton recorded on May 1. Supported by cost factors—coupled with a post-holiday decline in operating rates among phthalic anhydride manufacturers—phthalic anhydride prices underwent a period of weak consolidation following the holiday break, offering limited upward support to DOP prices. However, as OX prices continue their gradual downward drift, phthalic anhydride faces significant downward pressure; consequently, the downward pressure on DOP prices is expected to intensify in the near future.

Post-Holiday Supply and Demand Analysis of the DOP Market

Supply Side: Operating Rates Rebounded; Supply Remained Ample

On the supply side, several DOP production units at plasticizer manufacturers resumed operations in May following the completion of scheduled maintenance; consequently, the industry-wide operating rate rebounded to approximately 65%. With market supplies remaining abundant, manufacturers' inclination to hold up prices has weakened, and their primary focus has shifted to moving inventory.

Demand Side: Persistent Weakness, Driven Primarily by Essential Needs

Over 90% of DOP is utilized as a plasticizer for PVC; consequently, the downstream PVC industry is currently characterized by high inventory levels and weak demand. End-use sectors—such as real estate and packaging—are experiencing a sluggish recovery; as a result, downstream manufacturers are limiting their procurement strictly to essential requirements, avoiding large-volume orders and showing little inclination to stockpile inventory. Furthermore, the shift toward eco-friendly alternatives is accelerating, with environmentally friendly plasticizers—such as DOTP—encroaching upon DOP's market share; this structural shift in demand presents a long-term bearish outlook. Overall, the demand side for DOP remains weak, with insufficient growth in essential consumption; traders are responding by reducing positions during price rallies and maintaining a cautious operational stance. A standoff persists between upstream and downstream supply and demand dynamics, with transaction volume consisting predominantly of small-scale orders driven by immediate necessities, thereby limiting price volatility.

Market Overview and Future Outlook

According to the plasticizer product data analyst at SunSirs, raw material prices have trended downward in a volatile manner following the holiday period, providing insufficient cost support for DOP. Furthermore, with supply remaining ample and demand sluggish, there is insufficient underlying support to drive an upward movement in DOP prices. While downstream sectors may generate some restocking demand toward the end of the month, the prevailing market theme remains one of loose supply and weak demand; should raw material prices continue to soften, the downward pressure on the DOP market is expected to intensify in the near future. In summary, the DOP market in May is characterized by a dynamic interplay defined by "high costs, weak demand, and a tight supply-demand balance." While prices lack the momentum for any significant upward surge, the cost floor simultaneously limits the scope for any drastic decline; consequently, the market is expected to primarily undergo high-level consolidation—leaning slightly toward the weaker side—characterized by narrow-range fluctuations.

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