According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of pig iron by key steel enterprises in late April 2026 stood at 1.850 million tons—a sequential decline of 2.5% and a year-on-year decline of 5.6%. During the same period, the average daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.036 million tons—a sequential decline of 3.6% and a year-on-year decline of 7.5%. Furthermore, the average daily output of finished steel products by key steel enterprises in late April reached 2.155 million tons—a sequential increase of 7.0% and a year-on-year decline of 5.2%.

Analysis and Commentary

Scrap Steel

The average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises declined by 3.6% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year. With steel mills slowing their production pace, demand for scrap steel in smelting operations has weakened, exerting a slightly bearish influence on scrap steel prices.

Rebar

The average daily output of both crude steel and pig iron at key steel enterprises saw declines on both a year-on-year and month-on-month basis. Consequently, supply-side pressure on rebar has eased significantly. On May 8, 2026, the closing price for the SHFE main contract (2610) stood at 3,263 yuan/ton—an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day—while open interest rose by 33,758 lots. Strong bullish market expectations are currently providing positive support for prices.

Coiled Rebar

Coiled rebar falls under the category of construction steel products. As crude steel output at steel enterprises has declined on both a year-on-year and month-on-month basis, the contraction in supply is providing modest bullish support for coiled rebar prices.

Iron Ore

The average daily output of pig iron among key steel enterprises declined by 2.5% month-on-month and 5.6% year-on-year; consequently, smelting demand for iron ore has retreated, exerting bearish pressure on ore prices. On May 8, 2026, the benchmark 2701 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed at 796.5 yuan per dry ton, as demand-side factors continued to weigh on price trends.

Wire Rod

Crude steel production at key steel enterprises saw declines on both a year-on-year and month-on-month basis, leading to some alleviation of supply-side pressure on wire rod. On May 8, 2026, the 2701 contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) closed at 3,427 yuan per ton, providing modest bullish support to prices.

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