The ammonium chloride market currently exhibits a pattern characterized by overall oversupply—albeit temporarily curtailed by plant maintenance—bolstered by resilient export performance, and marked by price fluctuations at elevated levels. As a nitrogen fertilizer co-produced within the combined soda-ammonia industry, ammonium chloride possesses a substantial production capacity base. Following a price surge in the spring, prices have stabilized at high levels; exports have emerged as a critical growth driver, while the seasonal lull in agricultural demand is being counterbalanced by steady industrial demand. Consequently, prices are expected to remain in a near-term stalemate, while in the medium to long term, prices are likely to continue fluctuating within a specific range as supply and demand dynamics undergo further adjustments.
I. Export Data: Steady Growth in Q1, Sustained Overseas Demand
According to customs data, exports of products related to the ammonium chloride industry chain maintained a growth trajectory during the period from January to March 2026. Cumulative exports for the first quarter (Jan–Mar) totaled 657,700 tons—a year-on-year increase of 6.53%. Exports in March alone reached 202,600 tons, marking a 7.1% year-on-year increase, though representing a slight month-on-month decline. Export destinations are predominantly concentrated in Southeast and South Asia; stable demand from agricultural regions such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia continues to underpin the overall export volume. While stricter export control policies for fertilizers were implemented starting in March—potentially limiting future export growth—the fulfillment of previously secured orders remains ongoing, ensuring that export activity retains its resilience in the short term. Exports of upstream raw materials—such as synthetic ammonia and soda ash—have remained stable; given the priority placed on securing domestic supplies for ammonium chloride production, the pressure on domestic costs stemming from the export of these raw materials remains limited.
II. Recent Capacity Trends: Overall Oversupply, Maintenance-Induced Supply Contraction
Domestic ammonium chloride production capacity exceeds 18 million tons per year, resulting in an overall market situation where supply outstrips demand. Since April, the industry has entered a period of concentrated plant maintenance; facilities with a combined capacity of over 5.6 million tons—accounting for nearly one-third of the total capacity—have been temporarily shut down for repairs. This maintenance trend is expected to persist through May, with some facilities also scheduled for technical upgrades, resulting in a temporary contraction of effective market supply. Given the inherent co-production nature of combined soda-ammonia facilities, the stabilization of soda ash prices has bolstered manufacturers' willingness to maintain production operations. Consequently, as ammonium chloride is a co-product, its output levels adjust in tandem with soda ash production, thereby alleviating short-term supply pressures. From a long-term perspective, the industry currently has no plans for new capacity expansion; meanwhile, outdated production facilities are being gradually phased out, leading to a continuous optimization of the industry's overall capacity structure. III. Price Trends: High-Level Standoff Following Spring Surge; Benchmark Prices Stabilize
In the first half of 2026, ammonium chloride prices are expected to follow a "rise-then-stabilize" trajectory. From the beginning of the year through March, prices rose rapidly—driven by the release of demand for spring plowing combined with strong export support—with the price of dry ammonium in East China surging by over 50%. Since April, as demand has softened, prices have undergone high-level consolidation, and price fluctuations have narrowed.
As of May 11, the price for ammonium chloride (according to SunSirs) stood at 645.00 RMB/ton; this represents a slight retreat from the beginning of the month, though prices remain within the high range observed throughout the year. The primary drivers behind price fluctuations are the interplay between supply contractions caused by plant maintenance, support from export orders, and the typically weaker demand associated with the off-season; traders are largely following market trends, resulting in relatively stable market transaction volumes.
IV. Upstream and Downstream Prices: Raw Material Costs Stable; Downstream Demand Divergent
Upstream raw materials—specifically soda ash and synthetic ammonia—have seen prices remain stable to slightly weak. In early May, the mainstream ex-factory price for soda ash was approximately 2,600 RMB/ton, while synthetic ammonia prices retreated; consequently, the cost support underpinning ammonium chloride production has weakened. Prices for auxiliary materials such as liquid ammonia and coal have shown limited fluctuation, thereby alleviating pressure on the cost side. In the downstream sector, agricultural demand has entered the seasonal lull between spring and summer; fertilizer application for rice cultivation is winding down, and orders for the new season remain scarce. Conversely, industrial demand remains stable—driven by sectors such as electroplating, printing and dyeing, and battery manufacturing—where rigid demand continues to provide price support. Prices for dry and wet ammonium have diverged: the mainstream ex-factory price for dry ammonium ranges from 600 to 680 RMB/ton, while wet ammonium ranges from 550 to 600 RMB/ton; industrial-grade prices remain higher than agricultural-grade prices, and the price spread between the two has remained stable.
V. Future Outlook: Supply-Demand Dynamics Persist; Prices Fluctuate Within a Range
Looking ahead, the interplay between supply and demand in the ammonium chloride market is expected to intensify. Prices are projected to continue fluctuating within a high-level range, though the amplitude of these fluctuations is expected to narrow.
SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.
