For the 2025/26 marketing year, the European Union's sugar production is projected to reach 16.6 million tonnes—an upward revision from the previous estimate of 16.0 million tonnes. To meet growing consumer demand, the EU intends to bridge the supply-demand gap by increasing imports. Consequently, the EU's sugar import forecast for the 2025/26 year has been raised to 1.53 million tonnes, up from the previous estimate of 1.43 million tonnes.

From a market fundamentals perspective, although the EU's sugar production forecast for 2025/26 was revised upward by 600,000 tonnes, the growth in consumer demand was even more substantial. As a result, the import forecast still required an upward adjustment of 100,000 tonnes to fully cover the supply-demand deficit. This scenario reflects strong underlying support from the demand side of the market, thereby creating a bullish factor for white sugar prices. In the futures market, on May 8, 2026, the benchmark white sugar contract (Contract 2609) at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed at 5,442 RMB per tonne—an increase of 38 RMB per tonne over the previous trading day—with both trading volume and open interest rising in tandem.

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