Following the holiday break, domestic ferrosilicon market prices trended upward amidst fluctuations. The pattern of price movements throughout the week was distinct: an initial post-holiday surge was followed by a slight correction. Overall, the market's price center shifted upward, and market sentiment transitioned from a wait-and-see stance to a bullish bias. According to data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System—specifically regarding the ferrosilicon market in the Ningxia region (Grade: FeSi75-B; Particle Size: Natural Lumps)—prices began an upward trajectory on May 6, the first trading day after the holiday, rising slightly by 0.13% to 5,464 RMB/ton. On May 8, prices jumped by 0.73% to 5,497 RMB/ton, reaching a weekly high. On May 9, prices retreated by 0.39% to 5,478 RMB/ton; however, the cumulative weekly gain stood at 0.39%, and the price center shifted upward from 5,457 RMB/ton to 5,478 RMB/ton, thereby extending the previously observed trend of fluctuating strength.
Influencing Factors
Upstream Semi-coke Market: Market quotations for semi-coke in major production regions have remained stable with a slight upward trend. Mainstream quotations for small and medium-sized grades are holding steady within the 920–940 RMB/ton range. Influenced by raw coal prices and environmental production restrictions, semi-coke producers demonstrate a strong inclination to uphold prices; consequently, procurement costs for ferrosilicon manufacturers remain elevated, providing underlying support for ferrosilicon prices.
Demand Overview: Downstream demand remains stable, characterized by steady essential requirements and a post-holiday restocking surge. End-User Demand: Following the holiday period, operating rates at downstream steel mills have remained at high levels, and order volumes in the finished steel market have begun to recover. Consequently, steel mills’ essential procurement of ferrosilicon has remained stable, with no signs of significant volume reductions. Trader Stockpiling: Rising prices have bolstered traders' willingness to restock; some traders have proactively locked in prices to build inventory, leading to increased trading activity in the spot market. The demand side is currently transitioning from a "buy-as-needed" approach to "active stockpiling," thereby providing positive feedback that supports market prices.
Inventory Status: Overall industry inventory levels currently sit within a reasonable-to-low range. Inventory in Major Production Regions: In key production hubs such as Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, ferrosilicon manufacturers have not experienced any significant inventory accumulation; production remains primarily order-driven, and the pace of active inventory reduction remains steady. Some manufacturers have production schedules booked through mid-to-late May, resulting in tight availability of spot market resources. Inventory in Circulation: Stock levels held by ports and traders remain low. As prices rise, traders are becoming increasingly reluctant to sell—a sentiment known as "holding back stock"—which has further tightened the supply of goods circulating in the market and diminished the downward pressure that inventory levels typically exert on prices.
Market Outlook
In the short term, the ferrosilicon market is likely to maintain a trend of strong, volatile fluctuations. Supporting factors include rigid upstream semi-coke costs, low inventory levels among producers, rising procurement prices from steelmakers, and clear short-term bullish signals from a technical perspective—multiple factors collectively driving prices upward. Potential pressures, conversely, stem from insufficient sustained demand from downstream steel mills, increased supply resulting from production resumptions in major producing regions, and the impact of macroeconomic policy fluctuations on market sentiment.
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