According to monitoring by the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System: Last week, prices for softwood pulp underwent fluctuating adjustments, while hardwood pulp prices experienced a slight decline. On May 9, the average market price for softwood pulp in the Shandong region stood at 5,100 RMB/ton, remaining stable compared to the average price on May 1. On May 9, the average market price for hardwood pulp in the Shandong region was 4,583.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.22% compared to the average price on May 1.
Supply Side: In March, total pulp imports reached 3.297 million tons—a significant month-on-month increase of 17.8%. Concentrated arrivals at ports continued to replenish domestic supplies, and import volumes arriving in May remain relatively high. Although overseas pulp mills underwent maintenance and production cuts during the first quarter, the downstream impact of these cuts on domestic arrivals is not expected to materialize until at least mid-to-late May; consequently, current import arrival volumes remain at elevated levels. Furthermore, driven by the substitution effect of domestically produced pulp—where domestic hardwood pulp output surged by 12.0% last week—the increased supply of domestic pulp has further dampened market demand for imported pulp.
During the current cycle, pulp inventories at major ports shifted toward an accumulation trend. As of May 7, 2026, the sample inventory volume at China's mainstream pulp ports stood at 2.371 million tons—an increase of 19,000 tons (0.8% month-on-month) compared to the previous cycle. Specifically, inventory at Qingdao Port—a major domestic hub—showed an accumulation trend, with the average daily outbound shipment rate remaining largely unchanged from the previous cycle. Inventory at Changshu Port continued to show an accumulation trend, as outbound shipment volumes decreased by over 80,000 tons compared to the previous cycle. Inventories at other ports exhibited varying degrees of accumulation or depletion, generally remaining within a normal, balanced range.
Demand Side: May falls within the traditional off-season for the paper industry, resulting in limited overall demand support. Downstream markets—including household paper, cultural paper, and white cardboard—are experiencing lackluster demand and insufficient follow-through on orders; consequently, operating rates at paper mills have declined, leading to reduced consumption of wood pulp. Furthermore, given that overall gross margins for the four major downstream base paper categories remain relatively sluggish, paper manufacturers are continuing to prioritize cost reduction and efficiency improvements; consequently, their tolerance for high-priced pulp is limited, and their procurement strategies focus primarily on meeting immediate operational needs and restocking at lower price points.
Regarding futures: Last week, pulp futures prices generally exhibited narrow fluctuations with a slight downward shift in the trading range. As of the night session opening on May 8, 2026, the benchmark pulp futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 5,066 RMB/ton, closed at 5,080 RMB/ton, and reached a high of 5,088 RMB/ton, with a trading volume of 75,100 lots and open interest standing at 269,100 lots.
SunSirs analysts believe that the currently high inventory levels of wood pulp at domestic ports constitute the most direct factor suppressing pulp prices. This, combined with the downstream sector maintaining a general focus on meeting only immediate operational needs—and lacking any impetus for concentrated restocking—exerts bearish pressure on wood pulp prices. Consequently, prices are expected to continue trading within a narrow range in the short term.
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