Since the beginning of May, rapeseed oil prices have experienced a brief upward surge followed by a rapid decline. According to spot market data from SunSirs, the average spot price for rapeseed oil on May 8 stood at 10,126 RMB/ton—a decrease of 1.25% compared to the average market price of 10,254 RMB/ton recorded at the start of the month.

Supply Side: With the resumption of trade between China and Canada regarding rapeseed, the concentrated arrival of Canadian shipments at domestic ports has driven an uptick in crushing rates at domestic oil mills. Consequently, rapeseed oil production has increased. Market expectations regarding an easing of supply conditions in the medium term are now beginning to materialize, thereby capping the upside potential for prices.

Demand Side: The downstream market for edible oils has entered its traditional off-season, and demand from the food service sector has yet to show any significant signs of recovery. Furthermore, the price spread between rapeseed oil and its substitutes—soybean oil and palm oil—remains relatively wide; under this substitution effect, purchasing interest remains sluggish, leaving the market without adequate demand-side support.

While elevated crude oil prices provide a certain degree of floor support, the generally weak environment across the broader edible oils complex (exemplified by the softening of soybean and palm oil prices) is dragging down the rapeseed oil market. Compounded by market concerns regarding ample supply in the period ahead, bearish sentiment is currently dominating short-term market trends.

Currently, the market lacks significant bullish factors; in the short term, rapeseed oil prices are expected to exhibit a predominantly weak and volatile trend. In the medium term, ample supply remains the dominant theme, making prices more prone to decline than to rise. As crushing volumes increase and inventories rebound—compounded by the ongoing off-season for consumption—rapeseed oil is likely to maintain its prevailing weak trajectory.

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