Since the beginning of May, rapeseed meal has exhibited a unilateral downward trend: on May 8, the average market price stood at 2,462 RMB/ton—a decline of 2.92% compared to the average price of 2,536 RMB/ton recorded at the start of the month.

Arrivals of Canadian Rapeseed and Resumption of Crushing Operations: The pressure stemming from earlier arrivals of rapeseed at ports has begun to ripple through the market; consequently, concerns regarding a projected increase in future rapeseed meal supply are exerting downward pressure on prices.

Demand Falls Short of Expectations: Although the calendar has turned to May, the recovery in aquaculture feed consumption remains sluggish, while demand for livestock and poultry feed remains weak. Consequently, market participants show low willingness to procure rapeseed meal; overall, the demand side appears subdued and lacks resilience.

In the short term, the rapeseed meal market is expected to be dominated by weak, fluctuating movements. However, given that previously low inventory levels continue to provide some degree of market support, the pace of price decline is highly likely to slow down. Should aquaculture feed consumption continue to fall short of expectations—compounded by unabated substitution pressure from soybean meal—the current downward trend in rapeseed meal prices may prove difficult to reverse.

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