In the current context of normalized geopolitical conflicts and intensified great power competition, the global tungsten industry is experiencing a historic transformation characterized by rigid contraction on the supply side, strategic outbreak on the demand side, and accelerated restructuring of the supply chain. Geopolitical competition has stimulated the security attributes of tungsten, and industrial transformation has reshaped its economic value. Tungsten resources are being upgraded from traditional industrial basic materials to core strategic assets that influence great power competition, national defense security, and the transition to new energy. The value logic, supply-demand pattern, and the global focus of the game have all undergone profound changes.

For China, this is a historical opportunity to transform strategic resource advantages into international competitiveness; for the world, tungsten has become a core indicator for measuring supply chain resilience and national comprehensive security, and its strategic value will continue to rise.

Value reshaping: from “industrial teeth” to “strategic hard currency”

Tungsten, with its unique physical properties, has been endowed with three strategic values in the new era, and the structural outbreak of demand structure brings about the imbalance between supply and demand and the revaluation of value.

1. The "war metal" of national defense industry.Tungsten is a key material for military equipment, as its extremely high heat resistance and hardness allow components to withstand high temperatures, stress, and wear, and is used in aerospace and defense equipment. Tungsten is the core material for making penetrators for armor-piercing rounds (penetration rate over 60%), aircraft engine blades, missile guidance components, and hypersonic components. Geopolitical conflicts directly stimulate the global military industry to hoard goods. The United States is almost 100% dependent on foreign high-tungsten products, so the United States lists it as a core national defense strategy material. China Securities Building Investment's 2026 military metal demand research report states that global military tungsten purchases increased from 2,200 tons in 2024 to 3,000 tons in 2025, an increase of 36.4%, and the monthly consumption of tungsten in the Russia-Ukraine conflict exceeds 400 tons. Consulting firm Project Blue points out that military buyers can acquire at a price higher than civilian buyers, and last year defense purchases accounted for about 10% of global consumption. According to the U.S. Department of Defense's 2025 defense budget document, the U.S. "Golden Dome" anti-missile program alone requires 9,000 tons of tungsten. The day before the United States and Israel declared war on Iran, the Department of Defense urgently convened suppliers to seek new supplies of 13 critical metals, including tungsten.

2. The "backbone" of high-end manufacturing.As the core raw material for hard alloys, about 65% of the world's tungsten is used for hard alloys, which are key to precision machine tools, cutting tools, mining drills, semiconductor equipment, and precision molds, determining the accuracy and service life of "industrial mothers," and are a must-have for heavy industry and high-end manufacturing with an annual growth rate of 5%-10%. The 2025 Key Material Supply and Demand Report of the China Semiconductor Industry Association states that due to the surge in demand, the delivery cycle has been extended from 3 months to 9 months. In the advanced semiconductor manufacturing process, high-purity tungsten is used as a sputtering target and wiring material for advanced process chips, which is a must-have for nano-level manufacturing.

3. The "key auxiliary material" of the new energy revolution.The industrial transformation has stimulated explosive new demand, in the field of new energy, the penetration rate of photovoltaic tungsten wire cutting silicon wafers has soared from 20% in 2024 to 60% in 2025, and the demand will exceed 4500 tons in 2025, an increase of 198% year-on-year. Tungsten-based materials are the core candidate materials for solid-state battery electrodes, wind turbine bearings, and nuclear fusion devices (such as ITER divertors), and the demand for lithium tungstate, the core material of solid-state batteries in the field of energy storage, has increased by 300% year-on-year. In the field of nuclear fusion, the divertor device of the "artificial sun" must use full tungsten components.

Absolute dominance: China's tungsten industry becomes the trendsetter of the global market

Global tungsten resources and supply are highly concentrated, with China's absolute dominance in "resources + capacity + technology", making it a key chip in the great power game.

1. China holds absolute dominance in terms of resources and supply.According to data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), global tungsten reserves amount to approximately 4.7 million tons, with China accounting for 2.5 million tons—representing 53% of the total and firmly placing it in first place. Australia follows with 570,000 tons, Russia with 400,000 tons, and Vietnam with 170,000 tons. In terms of production, global tungsten output in 2025 is expected to reach about 85,000 tons, with China contributing 67,000 tons, or 78.8% of the global total. Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Russia, and North Korea follow closely behind, but their production levels are extremely low—3,000 tons, 2,400 tons, 2,000 tons, and 2,000 tons respectively. From a supply-chain perspective, according to the 2024-2025 tungsten industry operating report by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), China’s smelting and processing capacity accounts for over 90% of the global total, while its cemented carbide capacity exceeds 70%. With control over the entire value chain—from mining to advanced processing—China has become the key variable determining global industrial security through its “China supply.”

2. From protective mining to strategic countermeasures control.To protect domestic tungsten mine resources, the Ministry of Natural Resources has tightened the annual tungsten mine production control target from 2024 to 2026. In 2026, the national tungsten mine production target was 115,000 tons, a cumulative reduction of 14% compared to 2024, with the target for low-grade ore areas cleared, strict crackdown on illegal mining, and a continuous contraction of effective supply, successfully converting strategic resource advantages into geographical influence. In February 2025, in response to the tariff war launched by the United States against China, China implemented controls on 25 tungsten products, including ammonium tungstate (APT), and implemented a "one order, one certificate" system. According to the import and export statistical data of the General Administration of Customs in the first two months of 2026, the export volume of 25 tungsten products in the first two months of 2026 decreased by 35.99% year-on-year, and APT exports were zeroed. The tungsten industry consulting company Wolfram Advisory said that since the implementation of the new control measures, China's tungsten exports have decreased by nearly 40%. Project Blue estimated that in 2025, China's tungsten production decreased by 10% year-on-year, to 61,000 tons.

3. Dual-wheel drive demand for military and new energy. Driven by the resonance of supply contraction and demand outbreak, tungsten prices have shown a single upward trend after 2025. Data from Shanghai Non-Ferrous Metals Network shows that the price of Amsterdam Traded Tungsten Acid Ammonium (APT) has surged from less than $400 per ton before 2025 to over $2,200 per ton, marking a complete transformation of tungsten from a common commodity to a strategic scarce resource. Under the "Critical Mineral Autonomous" strategy of the United States and Europe, the demand for strategic reserves has increased dramatically. With the intensification of the Iran war, the price of tungsten has accelerated, making tungsten the strongest performing commodity in recent months, surpassing the gains of copper, gold, and oil. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that tungsten product prices are currently at their highest level in 90 years. The Bank of Montreal released a research report in February, stating that the world has entered a tungsten crisis due to the continuous decline in ore grade, environmental restrictions, and a lack of new mining investments. With global inventories extremely low, it is expected that there will be a shortage again in 2026 and it will continue. Project Blue estimates that defense demand, which accounts for about 12% of the tungsten market, is expected to grow to about 15% between 2027 and 2028 as inventory replenishment keeps tungsten demand at a high level. The assessment agency Argus points out that the automotive industry consumes 25%-30% of tungsten, making it the largest consumer at present. Global defense sector demand grows by about 8% per year, and if this trend continues, the defense sector could surpass the automotive industry and become the largest consumer of tungsten in the mid-2030s.

Geopolitical competition: The security dynamics under highly concentrated resources and supply chains

Tungsten has been upgraded to the core chip in the strategic game of major powers under the geopolitical conflict, and Western countries are trying to systematically reduce their dependence on China through legislative subsidies, alliances, trade barriers, strategic reserves, and technological blockades.

1. United States: Defense-driven, full-chain autonomy.The United States stopped commercial production of tungsten in 2015 due to cost issues, and the tungsten industry has been in decline for ten years, with almost no survivors. In 2018, the United States included tungsten in its list of critical minerals, and in 2022, the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act allocated $350 million to support the processing of critical minerals, with 12% specifically for tungsten, aiming to achieve a domestic tungsten concentrate production capacity of 2,000 tons per year by 2027, to promote domestic复产 and investment. In May 2025, the U.S. Tungsten Corporation began to rebuild the Ima project in Idaho, which produced about 19,944.9 tons of tungsten trioxide (WO3) from 1945 to 1957. In December 2024, the U.S. Trade Representative's Office announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on some imported tungsten products from China under Section 301, promoting a shift in imports to Australia, Canada, South Korea, and other countries. The United States is also rebuilding its strategic reserve, aiming for 5,000 tons of ammonium tungstate, which is about 90 days of net imports; in the 2025 fiscal year, it purchased 2,040 tons of tungsten mine concentrate, an increase of 666% year-on-year; and launched a $1 billion purchase plan, which will add another 1,700 tons over the next three years.

2. EU, Japan, South Korea: Technological lockout, diversified supply.The EU has listed tungsten as one of the 17 strategic raw materials, and has passed the Critical Raw Materials Act and the Industrial Accelerator Act to promote local mining, diversified imports, recycling and alloying, setting core acts and quantitative targets: by 2030, local mining ≥10%, primary processing ≥40%, recycled content ≥25%, and a single external supplier ≤65%; investment restrictions are set for countries with over 40% of production capacity, such as China, and constraints such as forced technology transfer and local employment ≥50% are imposed. In March 2025, the EU approved 47 strategic projects with a total investment of 22.5 billion euros, and gave priority licensing and financing to three tungsten projects in Spain and Portugal. In addition, the EU has also implemented exploration subsidies, fast-track environmental assessment (shortened to 18 months), and a 30% tax credit for new processing plants; established partnerships and signed free trade agreements with Australia, Canada, Chile, Argentina, Congo (DRC), etc.; and plans to reach a critical mineral agreement with the United States in 2026, setting minimum price limits, subsidizing non-Chinese suppliers, and jointly investing 5 billion euros in a cross-border fund. In 2025, the EU launched a tender for 100,000 tons of tungsten reserves, with the first batch of 30,000 tons (15% of global annual consumption) to be included in the reserve within three years, and suppliers are required to be "non-Chinese sources". Japan and South Korea have listed tungsten as strategic materials, focusing on the layout of recycling technology and high-end materials.

3. Australia and Canada: Resource hubs, full-chain development.Australia is the world's second-largest tungsten mine producer, accounting for about 15% of global production. The updated "Critical Mineral Strategy" in 2025 listed tungsten as a priority mineral for development, with 50% exploration subsidies (capped at 5 million Australian dollars per project), accelerated approval for tungsten projects, and the goal of becoming a core of the Western supply chain. At the same time, Australia actively joined the G7 Critical Mineral Production Alliance, and together with Canada and the United States, built a "Mineral NATO", with a production target of supplying 5,000 tons of tungsten concentrate to the Chinese market by 2030, accounting for 30% of Western demand. In October 2025, the United States and Australia signed the "Critical Minerals and Rare Earths Supply Security Framework Agreement", which locked in long-term tungsten mine supply from Australia to the United States and Australia, cutting off potential import channels from China. Canada passed the "Critical Raw Materials Act" in 2025, with a target of meeting 40% of demand domestically by 2030, giving federal projects priority to purchase domestic tungsten products, and offering a 30% investment tax credit for new tungsten processing plants. Its flagship project, Mactung, received a $120 million investment from the United States and is expected to be commissioned in 2028, supporting North American supply.

Supply-side substitutes: Can emerging tungsten supply chains outside China gain momentum?

With commodity prices surging, resource-rich countries and producers outside of China are entering a rare global opportunity moment.

1. Tungsten resources at the national level:Kazakhstan is becoming a potential key link in the tungsten supply chain outside of China, Project Blue estimated that production outside of China increased by 20% year-on-year to 19,000 tons last year, largely due to the start-up of the Boguty mine in the country. In 2025, the US mining investment company Cove Capital bid to "sneak in" two of the country's core tungsten mines (Shangkailajin, Beikatapar), with a $900 million loan from the US Export-Import Bank to attempt to dominate the development of the tungsten ore beds. According to the US Geological Survey data, Vietnam's tungsten production in 2025 is 3,000 tons, making it the world's second-largest tungsten producer, second only to China. The Nui Phao project, under the control of the country's Masan Group, is one of the largest tungsten mines outside of China and is currently seeking to introduce new strategic partners.

2. At the company level:In July 2025, the world's largest tungsten mine company outside of China, Almonty Industries, went public on the NASDAQ IPO, raising $129 million and then acquired the Montana Gentung tungsten project, which is expected to resume production this year. The company also received a $255 million loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank and an equity stake from the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), integrating tungsten assets in Spain, Portugal, and South Korea, and accelerating integration with the U.S. military industrial supply chain. In April 2026, the company relocated from Canada to the United States, and its South Korean Sangdong mine has a grade three times the global average, and once fully operational, it will produce nearly 40% of the non-Chinese supply, focusing on high-end tungsten carbide and hard alloys, with materials shipped to the U.S. market. In April 2026, the Canadian tungsten developer Allied Critical Metals secured $40 million in independent financing, focusing on advancing the Vila Verde project in Portugal and the largest undeveloped tungsten resource in Europe, the Borralha project.

3. Short-term effectiveness is not visible: Macquarie's 2026 Global Tungsten Supply Forecast Report points out that the additional tungsten capacity added overseas in 2026 will not exceed 5,000 tons, which is only 7% of China's production. UBS and CICC's 2025 Global Mining Investment Cost Model shows that it takes 5-8 years from exploration to production, with a single ton of investment exceeding 2 billion yuan, and the supply elasticity is extremely low. The International Tungsten Association (ITIA) report states that overseas mines mostly adopt the "resource + Chinese technology" model, and smelting and deep processing still rely heavily on China. The global tungsten market has entered a new era dominated by China, with a tight balance, high prices, and strong competition. At a time of great power competition, resource countries take the opportunity to push up prices and strengthen their voice. The International Tungsten Association's 2025 Global Tungsten Resource Country Policy Dynamics shows that Kazakhstan, Vietnam, etc. have tightened exports and increased resource taxes to seek a greater share of benefits.

The current tungsten supply chain is transitioning from "globalization" to " regionalization and group formation", with a long-term premium for geopolitical risks, which further exacerbates supply uncertainties. For China, the tungsten industry is both a cushion for resource security and a breakthrough for industrial upgrading. In the future, it is necessary to adhere to protective development, high-end development, and global layout, especially to strengthen strategic deployment with neighboring countries such as Vietnam and Kazakhstan, to continuously promote deep coupling of markets, resources, technology, and industrial advantages, and to consolidate an unshakable leading position in the global critical mineral game.

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