1. On the supply side, the domestic methanol operating rate stood at 89.9%, down 1.1 percentage points month-on-month. The overseas methanol operating rate was 52.1%, up 4.9 percentage points month-on-month.

2. Regarding inventories, as of 6 May 2026, total methanol port inventories in China stood at 922,000 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons compared to the previous period. Specifically, inventories in the East China region accumulated, rising by 49,000 tons; whilst in the South China region, inventories were drawn down, decreasing by 41,900 tons. Inventories at the sample methanol producers in China stood at 404,100 tons, an increase of 51,900 tons from the previous period, representing a month-on-month rise of 14.73%.

3. Regarding demand, the total weekly order volume (excluding long-term contracts) for methanol sample producers in the Northwest region amounted to 76,000 tons, an increase of 39,500 tons. Outstanding orders for sample producers stood at 191,100 tons, a decrease of 100,600 tons from the previous period, representing a month-on-month decline of 34.49%. The olefins operating rate was 85.7%, down 0.3% month-on-month; Methane chlorides operating rate: 80.8%, up 2.4% week-on-week; Acetic acid operating rate: 79.1%, up 5.8% week-on-week; Formaldehyde operating rate: 43.3%, down 6.4% week-on-week; MBTE operating rate: 66.1%, up 1.5% week-on-week.

4. In March 2026, the final actual unloading of methanol imports by foreign vessels in China stood at 424,500 tons, a significant decrease of 460,200 tons compared to the previous month, representing a decline of 52.01%.

5. Reports suggest that the US and Iran are on the verge of reaching a memorandum of understanding to formally end the conflict, leading to a sudden easing of geopolitical tensions and a fall in international oil prices. NYMEX June crude oil futures fell by $7.19 to $95.08 per barrel, a month-on-month decrease of 7.03%; ICE July Brent crude futures fell by $8.60 to $101.27 per barrel, a month-on-month decrease of 7.83%. China’s INE crude oil futures contract 2606 fell by 16.8 to RMB 667.3 per barrel, whilst the night session fell by RMB 34.1 to 633.2 per barrel.

On the supply side, only four Iranian plants are currently operational, producing around 12,000 tons per day. April imports are expected to reach only 500,000–600,000 tons, indicating a clear supply shortfall. The tug-of-war between squeezed industry margins and the absence of imports is set to continue, with methanol expected to trade in a range.

Domestic methanol operating rates have risen from high levels, whilst downstream demand remains stable but slightly weak. Port inventories of methanol are fluctuating within a narrow range; holiday-related pick-ups are significantly constrained, and domestic shipments continue to replenish stocks in large volumes, with substantial exports supporting demand. The mainland methanol market is weak, with enterprise auctions generally proceeding smoothly, whilst port methanol market differentials have weakened and trading is subdued. With port inventories rising and the spot market performing weakly, whilst prospects for US-Iran negotiations remain, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short term.

In the medium term, as Iranian shipments resume and imported cargoes arrive in ports, the most critical phase of methanol supply tightness has passed. Marginal demand from traditional downstream sectors and the MTO sector remains weak, and processing margins are poor; negative feedback from downstream price increases is intensifying, so a cautious, range-bound outlook is advised.

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