Market Review

This week, the market for imported 62% white potassium chloride generally exhibited a pattern of "high-level stalemate and narrow-range consolidation." The benchmark price, as tracked by SunSirs, remained stable at 3,550 RMB/ton—unchanged from the beginning of the month—with daily price fluctuations holding at 0%. Examining price trends over the past three months, the market experienced a surge followed by a retreat in early March; after undergoing sideways consolidation from mid-March to mid-April, prices came under renewed pressure and declined in late April. As of May 8, the price had fallen to 3,550 RMB/ton—a drop of approximately 4.1% from the year's high of 3,700 RMB/ton. Currently situated within the upper-to-mid range of the past year's price spectrum, this figure sits slightly above the year-to-date average of 3,496.08 RMB/ton, while still maintaining a support buffer of 300 RMB/ton relative to the year's low of 3,250 RMB/ton.

Market prices are exhibiting a distinct trend of divergence: mainstream quotes for 62% white potassium chloride at ports are concentrated in the range of 3,150–3,550 RMB/ton—a slight upward adjustment of 30–50 RMB/ton compared to the previous day. Concurrently, the delivered price for domestically produced 60% crystalline potassium chloride rose by 30 RMB/ton, now quoted at 3,300–3,330 RMB/ton. Driven by traders' reluctance to sell amidst tight supply, prices for certain scarce commodities have continued to trend upward; consequently, the market is displaying a pronounced "prices without transactions" phenomenon.

Fundamental Factors

1. Supply Side: Port inventories have dropped to a historic low of 1.94 million tons, and the supply of tradable stock available to merchants remains persistently tight; in some instances, supplies of particularly scarce goods have completely run out, providing strong support to the market. The pace of replenishment via new imports has been slow; although the overall supply of imported goods is ample, short-term arrivals at ports are insufficient—meaning a lack of incremental supply to flood the market—leading traders to demonstrate a strong inclination to hold firm on prices.

2. Demand Side: As spring plowing enters its final stages, essential agricultural purchasing is gradually tapering off. End-users are primarily adopting a "buy-as-needed" strategy, resulting in limited trading activity within the market. Downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers, constrained by high raw material costs, have adopted a more cautious procurement strategy; with new orders remaining sluggish, industrial demand is currently unable to provide any effective upward momentum for prices.

Price Forecast:

Short-term: Prices are expected to fluctuate within the 3,500–3,650 RMB/ton range, with key support at 3,500 RMB/ton and resistance at 3,650 RMB/ton.

In the short term, supported by low port inventories and price-bolstering efforts by traders, prices are unlikely to experience a significant decline; however, weak demand limits their upside potential. Prices are highly likely to remain within a high-level, narrow-range fluctuation pattern, making a sustained, unidirectional trend unlikely. Should port inventories continue to fall, tight supplies could trigger a modest upward spike, though the overall magnitude of such a move would likely remain limited.

In summary, the current market for imported potassium chloride is characterized by a tug-of-war between supply-side support and weak demand; consequently, the prevailing high-level stalemate is unlikely to be broken in the short term. The future trajectory of the market will depend primarily on the pace of replenishment via imports and the extent of recovery in downstream demand. It is therefore advisable to maintain a cautious, wait-and-see stance and closely monitor changes in key market variables.

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