Price trend

According to statistics from SunSirs, seamless tube prices underwent a narrow adjustment in April. At the beginning of the month, the quoted price for 20# seamless tubes (108*4.5) stood at 4,076 RMB/ton; by the end of the month, it had risen to 4,084 RMB/ton—an increase of 0.2%—while recording a year-on-year decline of 1.32%.

Market analysis

Regarding raw materials: In April, prices for tube billets remained firm at elevated levels. The price spread between northern and southern regions held steady at approximately 140 RMB/ton, while the price gap between tube billets and standard steel billets widened to 440 RMB/ton (up from about 300 RMB/ton at the start of the year). This trend reflects a temporary supply-demand mismatch driven by robust demand for specialty steels. Furthermore, the firm performance of the coke and iron ore markets provided further reinforcement to cost support; the Raw Material Purchasing Price Index surged significantly to 83.3, indicating a strong resolve among tube manufacturers to maintain their pricing levels.

Supply Side: During the first ten days of the month, production peaked at 432,100 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 86.55%. In the latter ten days, however—as in-plant inventories continued to accumulate, reaching 764,700 tons—tube manufacturers proactively curtailed production; consequently, output retreated to 415,900 tons, and the operating rate dropped to 79.21%, exhibiting a pattern characterized by "a surge during the peak season followed by a proactive contraction."

Regarding demand: During the peak season in April, the daily average transaction volume reached 15,795 tons—marking an increase on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis—driven primarily by accelerated infrastructure development, equipment renewal policies, and cost-driven inventory restocking. However, purchasing activity remains predominantly focused on immediate, essential needs, with limited bulk stockpiling; the real estate sector continues to act as a drag, while significant regional and product-type divergences persist (with the East and North China regions showing relative strength, and demand for small-to-medium diameter products appearing particularly robust).

Macroeconomics and Policy: April saw the implementation of new "Dual Carbon" policies, marking the entry of carbon constraints into a phase of rigid enforcement. New "high-energy-consumption, high-emission" projects now require carbon emission offsets—a measure that renders previously implicit carbon costs explicit. Over the long term, this will elevate production costs within the steel industry and reinforce rigid supply-side constraints. During the month, trends in the Steel PMI diverged across different statistical methodologies, while a weaker Construction PMI reflected a slowdown in the pace of infrastructure and real estate development.

Regarding exports: In March, seamless tube exports totaled 457,300 tons—a month-on-month decrease of 13.85%. However, cumulative exports for the first quarter reached 1.4507 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.52%, while net exports grew by 2.68%. The average export price rose by 2.63% month-on-month, driven by an increased share of high value-added orders; the Middle East and countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative remain the primary markets.

Market Outlook

In summary, the seamless tube market in May is expected to operate at elevated levels, exhibiting narrow fluctuations. On the cost side, strong billet prices provide solid downside support; however, the onset of the rainy season in the South—coinciding with the conclusion of the peak season—is leading to a seasonal slowdown in demand. tube mills are continuing to curb production to alleviate inventory pressure, while export volumes remain stable. As the medium-to-long-term impacts of "Dual Carbon" policies gradually become apparent, the market retains overall resilience, though upside potential remains limited.

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