Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, following the holiday period, domestic BDO prices declined from 8,504 RMB/ton to 8,470 RMB/ton. During this cycle, prices fell by 0.39%, while recording a month-on-month increase of 0.05% and a year-on-year increase of 6.55%. Production facility operations fluctuated within a narrow range, resulting in a slight contraction in supply volume. Meanwhile, overall downstream demand increased, keeping supply-demand pressures under control. However, due to insufficient follow-through in end-market demand and ineffective transmission of cost pressures, certain downstream sectors experienced volatile declines; consequently, most players focused on depleting existing raw material inventories or fulfilling strictly essential contractual obligations, leading to sluggish spot market purchasing activity characterized by active price bargaining.

Market analysis

Regarding the supply side—specifically plant operations—facilities such as those at Xinjiang Xinyie and Hualu have increased their operating loads, while the facility at Sichuan Yongying has experienced only narrow fluctuations. Consequently, the overall supply volume of BDO has contracted slightly, and supportive factors on the supply side remain in place. However, the positive impact stemming from the BDO supply landscape is beginning to wane.

Statistics on the Operational Status of Facilities at Selected Manufacturers:

Regarding the cost side: In the calcium carbide sector, influenced by previously low price levels, the number of facilities halting production has continued to rise, leading to a tightening of market supply; consequently, calcium carbide prices have bottomed out and begun to rebound. Following the holiday period—and aided by the restoration of transport capacity—shipments from producers have improved, while downstream consumers have significantly depleted their inventories (including material awaiting unloading), resulting in active purchasing. In the methanol sector, facilities across various regions have entered scheduled maintenance and shutdown cycles; coupled with manufacturers' inventories remaining at persistently low levels, the market supply landscape has become relatively tight. Simultaneously, pent-up downstream demand for inventory replenishment was released in concentrated fashion after the holiday, driving prices in the interior regions upward in line with the prevailing trend. With market conditions for the key raw materials—calcium carbide and methanol—showing positive momentum, the cost side for BDO is currently influenced by predominantly bullish factors.

Regarding the demand side—specifically downstream sectors—operating rates in the PTMEG and PBT industries have increased, while production loads for PBAT and PU slurries have declined. Operating rates in other downstream sectors remain relatively stable. Overall, downstream demand has seen a marked increase, resulting in a certain supply deficit within the BDO industry. Consequently, the impact on BDO demand presents a mixed picture.

Market Outlook

Raw materials—calcium carbide and methanol—are trending upward, leading to increased cost pressure on BDO production. Meanwhile, the restart of certain production units is boosting supply, while increased operating rates for PTMEG and PBT are driving up demand. Taking these factors into account, BDO analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the domestic BDO market will primarily undergo a period of consolidation.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.