National Data Center for Grain and Materials Reserves: In May, arrivals of imported soybeans are expected to be concentrated. Consequently, oilseed crushing plants are projected to increase their operating rates. Total soybean crushing volume for the month is forecast to rise by approximately 1.6 million tons month-on-month, leading to increased soybean meal production. By the end of the month, soybean meal inventories are expected to climb to around 600,000 tons—a month-on-month increase of approximately 200,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of about 300,000 tons.

Regarding the spot market: With the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in May and the subsequent rise in oilseed crushing plant operating rates—driving a month-on-month increase of roughly 1.6 million tons in total soybean crushing volume—soybean meal output is set to expand. Inventories are projected to reach approximately 600,000 tons by month-end (up 200,000 tons MoM and 300,000 tons Year on Year), indicating significant pressure from a loose supply environment, which is exerting distinct downward pressure on spot soybean meal prices. Regarding the futures market: On May 7, 2026, the closing price for the benchmark soybean meal contract (2609) stood at 2,988 RMB per ton—a decline of 19 RMB per ton from the previous trading day. Open interest increased by 26,574 lots. While some bearish sentiment in the market has already been released, short-term futures prices remain under downward pressure.

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