Aluminum prices fluctuated widely in April

Aluminum prices in April experienced significant volatility, ultimately retreating slightly. Prices declined at the beginning of the month but surged sharply mid-month, driven by sudden market triggers; they subsequently retreated rapidly, with the closing price at the end of the month standing approximately 0.87% lower than at the start. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of April 30, 2026, the average market price for domestic aluminum ingots in the East China region stood at 24,403.33 RMB/ton—a decrease of 0.87% compared to the average price of 24,616.33 RMB/ton recorded on April 1, and a decline of 3.06% from the month's peak average price of 25,173.33 RMB/ton (recorded on April 19).

The general logic driving aluminum prices in April is as follows:

Volatile Downtrend at the Start of the Month (April 1 – April 14):

Weak expectations regarding supply and demand are dominating the domestic market, resulting in a "lackluster peak season" and inventory destocking that falls short of expectations. Operating rates among downstream processing enterprises remain at low levels; orders from traditional downstream sectors—such as real estate and automotive—are weak, leading to insufficient purchasing driven by essential demand. Concurrently, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to come online, causing social inventories to trend upward and thereby suppressing spot prices.

The market is also being weighed down by a weak U.S. dollar and bearish macroeconomic sentiment. At the beginning of the month, the U.S. Dollar Index staged a temporary rebound; coupled with market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period, the valuation of dollar-denominated aluminum products has come under pressure. Furthermore, weak linkages between domestic and international markets have dragged down domestic spot prices.

Rapid Surge in Mid-Month (April 15–19):

Overseas supply shocks have ignited a market rally, as geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East have created a severe supply deficit. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, leading to large-scale production shutdowns at electrolytic aluminum facilities across the Middle East (accounting for approximately 55% of the region's total capacity). Consequently, LME inventories have continued to deplete, overseas spot premiums have skyrocketed, and the price spread between domestic and international markets has widened rapidly, thereby driving a passive upward trend in domestic aluminum prices.

An export arbitrage window has opened, leading to an outflow of domestic supplies. A structural shortage overseas has driven up London Aluminum prices; as the price spread between domestic and international markets widened into the arbitrage zone, export orders for domestic aluminum ingots surged. Consequently, the availability of spot aluminum in East China tightened, providing strong support for a substantial price rally.

The convergence of capital flows and market sentiment has amplified these gains. A "black swan" event affecting overseas supply triggered an influx of speculative capital; increased long positioning in the futures market subsequently spurred a catch-up rally in the spot market, creating an upward trend characterized by a strong "futures-spot linkage."

Late-Month Surged and Retreated (April 20 – April 30):

Concerns regarding overseas supply have marginally eased, leading to a waning of market sentiment. Market panic surrounding the situation in the Middle East is gradually being digested, and expectations for a resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying. Consequently, LME aluminum prices have retreated from their recent highs; the price spread between domestic and international markets has narrowed, effectively closing the export arbitrage window and giving rise to pressure from the return flow of domestic-sourced goods.

The market is repricing based on fundamentals characterized by high domestic inventories and weak demand. Domestic social inventories of electrolytic aluminum remain at elevated levels, while end-user demand has yet to show any substantive improvement; consequently, the previous upward trend—which lacked fundamental support—has given way to a price correction triggered by long positions taking profits.

The U.S. dollar strengthened, compounded by risk-averse capital flows ahead of the holiday. Hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve drove a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index, placing broad pressure on commodities; this effect was exacerbated by investors exiting positions to hedge against risk prior to the May Day holiday. Consequently, the pace of spot purchasing slowed, market trading remained subdued, and prices retreated to 24,403.33 RMB/ton by month-end.

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