Macroeconomics

1. [US-EU Trade Friction] Trade friction between the United States and Europe continues to escalate. Reports suggest that Germany has begun preparing countermeasures against the U.S.; one potential option involves restricting potash exports to the U.S. and potentially exploring avenues for cooperation with Canada, a major global supplier of potash.

2. [US ADP Employment Figures] Data released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) shows that U.S. private-sector employment rose by 109,000 in April—the largest increase since January 2025—exceeding market consensus forecasts of 99,000. The March figure was revised downward to an increase of 61,000.

3. [South Korean Exports] South Korea's export value reached $219.9 billion in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%, setting a new historical record for the same period.

Agricultural Products

1. [Soybeans] ’Oil World’ stated on Tuesday that U.S. soybean exports for the period from January to April 2026 are expected to reach 16.9 million tons, marking the highest volume for this period in three years. ‘Oil World’ noted that the growth in U.S. soybean exports is driven by a significant surge in exports to China—a rise substantial enough to offset a decline in exports to other parts of the world during the same period.

2. [Soybeans] The National Supply Company of Brazil (CONAB) released a crop progress report on Monday, stating that as of May 1, the harvest progress for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop stood at 94.7%. This figure is up from 92.1% the previous week, though it remains lower than the 97.7% recorded during the same period last year, and is also slightly below the five-year average of 95.1% for this time of year.

3. [Grains] In its latest outlook, the European Commission stated that the EU’s total grain production for the 2026/27 marketing year is projected to reach 277.6 million tons. This figure is a downward revision from the 278.1 million tons forecast in March; while it represents a 0.9% increase over the five-year average, it marks a 4.5% year-on-year decline.

4. [Corn] The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that for the week ending April 29, the harvest progress for Argentina’s 2025/26 corn crop reached 28%, up from 26.5% the previous week. The national average corn yield currently stands at 8.68 tons per hectare.

5. [Sugar] According to the latest data released by the Santos Port Authority in Brazil, Santos Port—the country's largest port—exported 4.25 million tons of sugar in the first quarter of 2026. Exports of bulk sugar surged by a significant 41% year-on-year, reaching 3.85 million tons, thereby serving as the primary driver behind the expansion of the port's overall export volume.

6. [Palm Oil] Data from shipping survey agencies indicates that Malaysia's palm oil exports for the period of April 1–30, 2026, declined by 15.3% to 16.2% month-on-month. By comparison, exports during the period of April 1–25 had shown a month-on-month decrease ranging from 15.7% to 16.8%.

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