Magnesium Metal Price Trends
According to monitoring by the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the magnesium ingot market in the Shaanxi region had declined. As of April 30, the average market price stood at 16,750 RMB/ton; compared to the average price of 17,450 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, this represents a decrease of 4.01%.
Market Analysis
Domestic magnesium prices exhibited an inverted V-shaped trajectory—characterized by an initial surge followed by a subsequent decline—as they peaked before retreating. In early April, the ex-factory cash price (inclusive of tax) for 99.90% magnesium ingots in Shaanxi hovered within the range of 17,400–17,500 RMB/ton. Subsequently, bullish sentiment intensified, and manufacturers displayed a pronounced reluctance to sell; coupled with rising speculative demand, magnesium prices followed a stair-step upward trend, briefly touching a periodic high of 17,550 RMB/ton early in the month. As April progressed into its mid-to-late stages, a growing apprehension regarding high price levels prompted a slowdown in downstream procurement; consequently, manufacturers engaged in panic selling, causing market prices to undergo a persistent, gradual decline. By the end of the month, however, prices staged a modest recovery, bolstered by restocking activities ahead of the May Day holiday.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
The supply side served as the primary factor weighing on magnesium prices in April. Production data indicates that in March, primary magnesium output rose year-on-year by approximately 25,100 tons, while magnesium alloy output increased by roughly 22,900 tons; this pace of supply growth significantly exceeded expectations. Entering April, driven by the profitability realized in the preceding period, operating rates at smelters in major production hubs continued their upward trajectory. Furthermore, the resumption of production in regions such as Xinjiang accelerated, potentially pushing the nationwide operating rate for primary magnesium smelters back to a historical high. Consequently, inventories at the producer level continued to accumulate. While most output was directed toward fulfilling long-term contract orders, some facilities—facing significant inventory pressure—resorted to cutting prices in order to move stock. This rapid expansion on the supply side exerted substantial downward pressure on magnesium prices, effectively curbing any potential for an upward trend.
On the demand side, the market faces a dual predicament: domestic demand remains weak but stable, while external demand is under pressure. Regarding domestic demand, although emerging sectors—such as new energy vehicles and humanoid robots—offer expectations of incremental growth, they are unlikely to fully offset the weakness in traditional demand in the short term. Downstream players are primarily focused on purchasing only to meet immediate, essential needs, and the pace of follow-up orders remains sluggish. With most downstream participants anticipating a continued decline in magnesium prices, their willingness to place orders remains subdued. Concurrently, customs regulations governing magnesium exports have continued to tighten; exporters of magnesium-containing materials are now required to provide quality inspection reports to certify that their products do not fall under the category of dual-use items. This has significantly heightened export-related risks for foreign trade merchants, resulting in a slowdown in the pace of document submission and clearance. While this lack of support from the export sector is insufficient to fundamentally alter the overall supply-demand landscape, it has nonetheless further exacerbated bearish sentiment within the market.
Market outlook
Magnesium prices in May are expected to maintain a pattern of weak yet stable consolidation, trading within a projected range of 16,400 to 17,000 RMB/ton.
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