Price Trends:

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, prices for wire rods and rebar rose initially before falling in April. By the end of the month, the average price for HRB400 rebar in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region stood at 3,204.84 RMB/ton—an increase of 0.76% compared to the beginning of the month—while the average price for HPB300 high-speed wire rod reached 3,335 RMB/ton, up 0.45% from the start of the month.

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic rebar market in April 2026 (April 1–30) exhibited a volatile upward trend, with its price center of gravity shifting slightly higher. At the beginning of the month, prices hovered at low levels, influenced by expectations of a production rebound and disruptions in broader macroeconomic sentiment. From the middle of the month onward, prices gradually recovered as seasonal end-user demand was unleashed and inventory depletion accelerated—a trend further bolstered by pre-holiday restocking demand. By the end of the month, the market was caught in a tug-of-war between cost-side support and lingering concerns regarding the sustainability of demand, causing the upward momentum to moderate.

Factors Affecting Price

According to data from SunSirs, both the weekly output and total inventory of wire rods and rebar declined in April

Supply

In April, the supply of rebar exhibited a moderate upward trend; however, absolute output remained at a low level relative to the same period over the past four years. As of the final week of April, the combined supply of the five major steel product categories totaled 8.6322 million tons—a week-on-week increase of 0.9%. Within this total, rebar production reached 2.1493 million tons—marking a marginal week-on-week increase of 17,900 tons—while the capacity utilization rate stood at merely 47.12%.

In terms of production processes, output from long-process lines increased by 8,000 tons to 1.8066 million tons, while output from short-process lines rose by 9,900 tons to 342,700 tons. This production growth was primarily driven by the resumption of operations at production lines across the North China, East China, and Northwest regions, with Jiangxi, Hebei, and Xinjiang recording the most significant increases. Overall, the pace of production resumption at steel mills remains moderate; year-on-year output is still down by 6.2%, indicating limited pressure on the supply side.

From the perspective of broader steel industry data, in mid-April 2026, the average daily crude steel output of key statistical steel enterprises stood at 2.111 million tons—a month-on-month increase of 0.4%—while the average daily output of finished steel products reached 2.015 million tons, up 3.1% from the previous month. During the same period, finished steel inventories totaled 18.63 million tons, representing a 6.4% increase from the preceding ten-day period and an 11.5% year-on-year rise. This pattern of "dual growth"—in both output and inventory—has generated a certain degree of bearish market sentiment.

Demand

The performance of the demand side in April served as the primary driving force behind the market's recovery. As of April 24, the apparent consumption of rebar stood at 2.5044 million tons—a week-on-week increase of 120,600 tons (up 5.06%)—marking the ninth consecutive week of growth. Demand has now entered its traditional peak season; construction activity in the East and South China regions remains at elevated levels, and the sustained release of rigid demand is providing strong momentum for inventory destocking.

Downstream high-frequency data indicates that nationwide cement shipments rose by 2.01% month-on-month, while the capacity utilization rate at concrete mixing stations increased by 0.46 percentage points week-on-week; this corroborates the assessment that construction activity is accelerating. The primary driver behind this demand recovery is the sustained resilience of infrastructure investment; however, steel demand from the real estate sector remains weak—with the floor area of new construction starts for January through March still down 17.1% year-on-year—thereby constraining the overall strength of demand.

Export performance continued to demonstrate resilience. Supply constraints in certain overseas regions have created a global supply-demand gap for steel products; meanwhile, a steady increase in orders for high value-added products has effectively alleviated the pressure of homogenized competition within the domestic market.

May Market Forecast:

Regarding Costs: On the cost front, the continued operation of iron ore and coke prices at elevated levels will continue to provide underlying support for rebar prices. However, two specific developments warrant close attention: First, the impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East on commodities is gradually subsiding, thereby weakening the cost-push dynamic driven by crude oil prices; second, the cost of hot metal remains advantageous relative to scrap steel. Consequently, should rebar prices rise too rapidly—and once electric arc furnace (EAF) profit margins recover—supply output will accelerate, effectively triggering a "self-regulating" market mechanism.

Macroeconomic Perspective: U.S.-Iran negotiations remain fraught with twists and turns; consequently, fluctuations in crude oil prices are exerting a bullish influence on the "black commodities" complex. As pro-growth policies accelerate their implementation, steel demand within the infrastructure sector is expected to maintain its resilience. However, the decelerating pace of special bond issuances has resulted in a marginal weakening of financial support for infrastructure projects, while the drag from the continued contraction in new real estate construction starts persists.

Regarding demand: The current weekly apparent demand—hovering around 2.5 million tons—may already be approaching its peak for the traditional "peak season." Historical trends suggest that the demand high point for the first half of the year typically occurs in early to mid-May. Based on the cumulative 8.6% year-to-date decline in demand observed earlier this year, the peak demand for the current season is projected to be in the vicinity of 2.67 million tons, implying that apparent consumption still retains some room for upward growth. However, it is crucial to maintain a clear-eyed perspective: the prevailing macroeconomic backdrop—characterized by an 11.2% year-on-year decline in real estate investment and a 20.3% drop in new construction starts—dictates that the momentum required for a significant upward breakout in demand is severely lacking. Furthermore, with the onset of the plum rain season in southern regions during mid-to-late May, the pace of construction activity is expected to slow down markedly, subjecting demand to pressure from seasonal weakening.

Supply Side: Current weekly rebar output stands at 2.15 million tons—a five-year low for this time of year—marking a 6.2% year-on-year decline. However, an upward trend in supply has now been firmly established; in mid-April, the average daily steel output among key steel enterprises rose by 3.1% month-on-month, indicating that momentum for increased production is gathering strength. As May begins, and with profit margins for steel mills in certain regions showing marginal improvement, production lines that had previously undergone maintenance are expected to resume operations. Although the regulatory framework for crude steel output and routine environmental production restrictions continue to constrain the release of supply, a gradual accumulation of supply-demand imbalances is anticipated, given that the pace of declining demand currently exceeds that of supply contraction.

In summary, analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the rebar market in May 2026 will exhibit a pattern characterized by an initial rise followed by a decline, marked by overall volatile weakness. During early May, supported by concentrated restocking among end-users and the momentum of ongoing construction activities, prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, with gains projected to range between 30 and 50 RMB/ton. By mid-May—once the peak demand period has been confirmed—the pace of inventory destocking is expected to slow; as supply-demand imbalances gradually surface, price momentum will ease, leading to consolidation at elevated levels. In late May, the onset of the rainy season in southern regions will disrupt construction activities and trigger a seasonal decline in demand; coupled with the continued release of supply, prices will come under pressure and undergo a correction, with inventory levels potentially shifting from a downward trend to an upward one by the end of the month. The projected price range for May is 3,100 to 3,250 RMB/ton.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.