According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic market for 1# lead ingots experienced low-level fluctuations in April 2026. The average domestic market price stood at 16,575 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 16,615 RMB/ton at the end of the month, marking a monthly increase of 0.24%.

On April 28, the SunSirs Lead Index stood at 101.06 points, a decrease of 0.06 points from the previous day. This represents a decline of 24.59% from the cycle's peak of 134.01 points (recorded on November 29, 2016) and an increase of 35.41% from the cycle's low of 74.63 points (recorded on March 19, 2015). (Note: The cycle period covers September 1, 2011, to the present.)

In April, domestic prices for No. 1 lead ingots followed a trajectory of surging initially before retreating, exhibiting an overall pattern of narrow-range fluctuation.

The supply side exhibited a trend of moderate expansion.

In the primary lead sector, smelters in the Henan and Hunan regions that had previously undergone maintenance are gradually resuming production, while operations at smelters in Yunnan remain stable and orderly. Consequently, the weekly operating rate for primary lead has risen sequentially to over 64%, indicating a robust overall supply. Domestic lead concentrate processing fees have held steady; although the tight supply-demand balance in the mining segment remains unchanged, the increased revenue generated by rising prices for by-products—specifically sulfuric acid and silver—has effectively boosted smelters' enthusiasm for production.

The recycled lead sector presents a complex landscape characterized by the interplay of "production cut expectations" and a "rebound in operating rates." Following a decline in lead prices, scrap battery collectors opted to hold onto their inventory in anticipation of a price recovery; consequently, profit margins for recycled lead smelters temporarily inverted—turning negative—compelling a number of small and medium-sized plants to scale back production. However, toward the end of the month, the tight supply of scrap battery feedstock eased somewhat, and smelting losses narrowed, thereby driving a recovery in the weekly operating rate of the recycled lead sector. Nevertheless, constrained by persistent raw material shortages, the industry as a whole continues to hover near the breakeven point, struggling to return to a state of substantial profitability, and the pace of production recovery remains sluggish.

Demand Side

April coincides with the traditional off-season for consumption, resulting in overall weakness on the demand side. Demand within the replacement markets for electric bicycle and automotive starter batteries remains sluggish; consequently, distributors are facing inventory backlogs and significant pressure to destock, leading them to adopt a cautious stance toward procurement. Battery manufacturers have generally adopted a strategy of "producing based on sales and purchasing on demand," limiting their lead ingot replenishment solely to immediate, essential needs. Their tolerance for high-priced supplies remains extremely low, and it is anticipated that the intensity of inventory replenishment prior to the May Day holiday will also be highly limited.

Inventory Front

Social inventories remained at relatively elevated levels compared to recent years; LME inventories have retreated from their highs to 294,000 tonnes, though global inventory pressure has not yet been fully alleviated.

Market Outlook

Overall, the market exhibited characteristics of a "feeble rebound followed by a top-formation and subsequent decline." Lead prices are highly likely to continue their pattern of range-bound fluctuation.

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