According to data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic market price for toluene stood at 8,101 RMB/ton on April 1; by April 30, it had retreated to 6,934.33 RMB/ton, marking a cumulative price decline of 14.4% over the period.
In April 2026, the domestic toluene market exhibited a general trend of initial decline followed by a subsequent rise, characterized by a significant overall downturn and volatile, predominantly weak performance. During the first ten days of the month, the market maintained its weak downward trajectory, with prices continuing to soften; in the middle ten days, the decline intensified further, pushing market prices to their lowest levels of the month. In the final ten days, the market halted its slide and stabilized, experiencing a modest rebound; however, the strength of this recovery was limited, failing to fully recoup the losses incurred earlier in the month. Throughout the entire month, market transactions were dominated by small-volume orders driven by immediate, essential demand; the overall trading atmosphere remained subdued, and with traders and downstream participants adopting a strong wait-and-see stance, the market operated under sustained pressure.
Cost Perspective:
In April, international crude oil prices followed a trajectory of initial decline followed by a rebound; however, the overall price center shifted downward, resulting in continuously weakening cost support for toluene. At the beginning of the month, fluctuating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caused crude oil futures to oscillate at high levels before undergoing a sharp correction. Although a brief rebound occurred during the middle and latter parts of the month, it failed to generate any sustained positive cost transmission. By the end of April, futures prices for both WTI and Brent crude had retreated significantly compared to the start of the month, directly eroding the cost support for toluene production. Concurrently, the price spread between pure benzene and toluene remained wide. While arbitrage windows between PX and mixed xylenes did open up, the resulting upward impetus for toluene was limited—insufficient to offset the bearish impact stemming from the weakening crude oil market. Overall, the cost side of the market exhibited a pattern of retreating from previous highs, characterized by lackluster support.
Supply Side:
In April, the domestic toluene market maintained an overall ample supply. Major state-owned refineries and independent refineries in Shandong demonstrated high enthusiasm for shipments, resulting in abundant market availability. Domestically, toluene units at major refineries—such as Sinopec and PetroChina—operated stably; meanwhile, independent refineries in Shandong fully utilized their production capacity, ensuring smooth regional circulation of supplies. Regarding imports, although the volume of toluene imports saw a slight month-on-month decline in April, port inventories remained at a reasonably high level. Supply pressure at ports in Jiangsu remained moderate, and the spot market was well-stocked. As the May Day holiday approached, some refineries expedited their shipment schedules, further boosting market supply. This factor—combined with limited arbitrage opportunities for exports—meant that pressure from the domestic supply side continued to constrain any potential for price appreciation.
Demand Side:
International Market: From April 1 to April 30, prices in the Asian paraxylene (PX) market trended upward amidst fluctuations. As of the market close on April 29, the price for Asian PX stood at $1,266–$1,268/ton (CFR China)—an increase of $52/ton compared to the price on April 1—marking a notably significant overall fluctuation.
In April, overall weak demand and subdued purchasing sentiment within downstream toluene industries emerged as one of the primary factors dragging prices downward. Operating rates across downstream sectors—including styrene, phenol, and caprolactam—varied but generally remained at low-to-moderate levels, resulting in limited "rigid demand" (essential) purchasing for toluene. Specifically, operating rates in the styrene sector saw a slight month-on-month decline; facing cost pressures, enterprises adopted a strictly "buy-on-demand" strategy, showing little enthusiasm for restocking. Although operating rates in sectors such as phenol and aniline remained relatively stable, a shortage of terminal orders translated into sluggish purchasing activity on the raw material front. Furthermore, as the May Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises had largely completed their earlier inventory replenishment efforts. Consequently, there was a reluctance to accept high-priced supplies, and a strong "wait-and-see" sentiment prevailed in the market; trading activity was dominated by small-volume, essential-need transactions, lacking the support of large-scale deals.
Market outlook
Overall, the domestic toluene market in May is expected to exhibit narrow fluctuations—characterized initially by stability, followed by a wait-and-see stance. On the bullish side, expectations of stabilizing and rebounding crude oil prices are providing temporary support to the cost side; furthermore, following the May Day holiday, potential restocking demand from downstream sectors may drive a pickup in market inquiries. Conversely, bearish factors persist: supply remains ample, inventory pressure remains significant, and the recovery in downstream demand remains sluggish, resulting in insufficient uptake of high-priced cargoes. These factors are compounded by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and price volatility in crude oil and related futures, which continue to weigh on market sentiment. Prices are projected to undergo narrow consolidation during early May; subsequently, key factors to monitor will include crude oil price trends, developments in the Middle East, downstream operating rates and restocking activities, and changes in refinery inventory levels.
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