The "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2026-2035)", compiled by the Market Analysis and Early Warning Team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, was released in Beijing recently.

The report focuses on 20 major agricultural products including grains, cotton, oilseeds and sugar, summarizes and reviews the market situation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and in 2025, and forecasts the production, consumption, trade and price trends in the next 10 years, especially at important nodes such as 2026 and 2035.

The report shows that China's grain yield per 667sqm is expected to increase to 400 kilograms per 667sqm in 2026. Driven by the higher yield, the grain output will reach 716 million tons, an increase of 0.2% over the previous year. The annual oilseed output is projected to hit 42.04 million tons, up 2.6% from the previous year.

The report also shows that China's consumption of edible vegetable oil is expected to decrease by 0.2% in 2026 compared with the previous year, while the edible consumption of soybeans and milk consumption will both increase by 0.6% from the previous year. The trade and production of agricultural products will be more coordinated, imports will decrease somewhat, and exports of traditional advantageous agricultural products are expected to grow. The overall prices of agricultural products will remain stable, and most varieties will show a trend of first stabilizing and then rising within the year.

The report analyzes and looks forward to the future. In the next 10 years, the comprehensive production capacity of grain and important agricultural products will be significantly enhanced, the diversified food supply system will be more improved, and the supply and demand of agricultural products will enter a new stage of high-level dynamic balance. Among them, the sown area of grain will maintain a slight increase steadily, and the per unit yield will increase steadily. It is estimated that the grain output will reach 733 million tons in 2030 and further rise to 753 million tons in 2035, with an average annual growth rate of 0.7% compared with the base period (the base period is the 3-year average from 2023 to 2025, the same below). Grain consumption will grow slowly at first, reaching a peak of 842 million tons in 2032, and then decline gently.

The China Agricultural Outlook initiative was launched in 2014 and has been regularly releasing the China Agricultural Outlook Report for 13 consecutive years. It has become an important window for China to release authoritative information on the agricultural product market and exchange views on the production, consumption, market conditions and trends of agricultural products.

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