According to the Agricultural Inputs News, the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, which has persisted since late February, has plunged the fertilizer market into turmoil characterized by rising prices and supply shortages. In the early stages of the conflict, many industry insiders suggested that, having weathered the Ukraine crisis, the world had gained the experience needed to handle such supply chain crises. However, as hostilities have dragged on, an increasing number of people have come to realize that the severity of this crisis may far exceed initial assessments. This is not merely a reallocation of fertilizer resources following the geopolitical conflicts of 2022, but rather a matter of survival amidst persistent fertilizer shortages, forcing nations worldwide to reassess the critical role played by fertilizers.

Fertilizers are not only a core input for agricultural production, directly linked to national food security, but also a key energy derivative, deeply intertwined with critical strategic resources such as natural gas, sulphur and phosphate rock. In the face of this crisis, nations have taken action and implemented changes.

For nations with ample fertilizer supplies, these resources have become a vital source of confidence, enabling them to maintain a firm footing amidst global uncertainty. China has consistently prioritized domestic supply; against a backdrop of soaring global fertilizer prices and supply disruptions facing many countries, Chinese farmers have continued to have stable access to cost-effective fertilizer, thereby laying a solid foundation for stable domestic grain production. As a major global exporter of fertilizer, Russia’s significance has become increasingly prominent during this conflict. Following the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, numerous countries have called for the lifting of sanctions on Russian fertilizer exports. To ensure a stable supply for their own agricultural production seasons, the Russian government has explicitly set a quota of 20 million tons for fertilizer exports between 1 June and 30 November 2026, thereby further consolidating its influence in the fertilizer sector.

For nations reliant on fertilizer imports, this crisis has placed them in a dilemma: on the one hand, they must compete for limited supplies on a global scale; on the other, they are compelled to reassess their own supply systems and seek a way to secure stable supplies. To alleviate this predicament, countries are employing various strategies: the United States is considering expanding fertilizer imports from Venezuela and broadening import channels whilst reducing costs through measures such as lifting anti-dumping duties on Moroccan imports; some nations, meanwhile, plan to adjust shipping routes, considering transit via the Red Sea to bypass the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz, with the aim of establishing a safer and more sustainable fertilizer supply system.

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