In April 2026, the global memory chip (DRAM/NAND) market reached a peak characterized by soaring prices, spot market shortages and structural supply constraints. Driven by an explosion in demand for AI computing power coupled with international giants shifting production capacity, the supply of traditional general-purpose memory has contracted dramatically. Prices have soared for several consecutive months, with price increases for mainstream products accelerating further in April. The entire industry chain has plunged into a tense situation where ‘supply is in short supply’, with shortages spreading from high-end sectors to the consumer market, becoming a key bottleneck constraining the electronics manufacturing industry.

I. Comparison of Customs Import and Export Data (January–March 2026)

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, exports along the memory chip supply chain have been characterized by stable volumes and rising prices, with high-value-added products leading the way. Against the backdrop of global shortages, the competitiveness of domestically produced memory has become increasingly evident:

DRAM memory chips: Cumulative exports from January to March totaled 1.28 billion units, up 41.2% year-on-year; export value reached CNY38.65 billion, up 195.3% year-on-year, accounting for over 60% of total memory chip exports and serving as the core driver of export growth.

NAND Flash Chips: Cumulative exports from January to March reached 830 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%; export value stood at CNY21.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120.5%. With a concentrated release of orders driven by shortages in overseas markets, export volumes continued to climb.

Exports were primarily directed to Southeast Asia, North America and European markets. Amidst the global shortage, domestic memory chips rapidly increased their market share by leveraging their cost-performance advantage.

II. April Production Capacity and Supply Landscape

In April, global memory chip production capacity exhibited slight overall growth, structural imbalances and a ‘high-end siphoning’ effect, with the supply gap continuing to widen and the shortage crisis erupting on a full scale:

Global Capacity: The three major international giants (Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron) account for 90% of global DRAM capacity. Although overall capacity in April increased by only 3.2% year-on-year, over 70% of advanced capacity was redirected towards HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and high-end DDR5, significantly squeezing capacity for traditional DDR4 and consumer-grade DDR5. As a result, actual general-purpose memory output fell by approximately 25% year-on-year.

Domestic capacity: Domestic DRAM production lines are operating at full capacity, with monthly output reaching 180,000 wafers in April, a month-on-month increase of 5.8%. However, this accounts for only 8% of total global capacity and is insufficient to bridge the global shortfall. NAND flash memory capacity is rising steadily, with monthly output reaching 220,000 wafers, yet this still fails to meet downstream demand.

Supply Landscape: A structural imbalance is evident, characterized by extreme shortages in the high-end segment (HBM/DDR5 server-grade), worsening shortages in the mid-range segment (DDR5 consumer-grade), and tight supply in the low-end segment (DDR4). The global DRAM supply-demand gap stands at 4.9%, whilst the NAND gap is 4.2%; the shortage is expected to persist until at least the end of 2027.

III. Price Trends and Volatility

In April, memory chip prices surged across the board, with the rate of increase accelerating and spot prices far exceeding contract prices, reaching record highs in recent years:

DRAM (memory chips) rose by over 30% within the month.

NAND flash memory rose by 20% within the month.

Volatility characteristics: Steady increases in the first half of the month; intensified supply panic in the middle of the month triggered a sharp price surge; prices remained firm at high levels in the latter half of the month. Overall, the market exhibited a one-sided surge, with volatility reaching a ten-year high, and the phenomenon of ‘prices without supply’ was widespread in the spot market.

IV. Logic Behind Price Fluctuations in Upstream and Downstream Sectors

Upstream wafers and raw materials: Prices for 12-inch wafers rose by 12% month-on-month in April. Prices for raw materials such as silicon wafers and photoresist remained firm at high levels. Coupled with capacity constraints in advanced process technologies, this has led to rigid cost increases, providing strong support for memory chips.

Memory chips: The core drivers are the explosion in AI demand, international giants prioritizing production capacity, the widening global supply-demand gap, and low inventory levels. A single AI server consumes 8–10 times more DRAM than a standard server, and by 2026, global AI data centers will account for 70% of high-end DRAM production capacity; Global giants are prioritizing the production of high-margin HBM, leading to a contraction in traditional memory supply; global inventories have fallen by 45% year-on-year, whilst downstream manufacturers are engaging in panic stockpiling, further exacerbating shortages and price rises.

With persistent shortages, prices remaining firm at high levels and structural divergence, memory chip prices are likely to continue rising. As AI demand continues to be released and downstream stockpiling enthusiasm remains undiminished, the supply-demand gap is set to widen further, potentially intensifying the shortage crisis.

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