In April, the price of the plasticizer DOP halted its upward trend and began to decline

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of April 29, the price of DOP stood at 10,050.83 RMB/ton. Compared to the price of 10,259.17 RMB/ton recorded on April 1, the market experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, resulting in a decrease of 2.03%. Throughout April, the domestic DOP market generally exhibited a trend of high-level fluctuation followed by a slight pullback; while prices remained near their annual highs, upward momentum was insufficient—hindered by cost corrections and sluggish demand—leading to a marginal weakening of prices over the course of the month.

Crude oil market trends rippled through to the downstream sector

Crude oil prices experienced volatile declines in response to the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, triggering a correction in propylene prices. This trend subsequently rippled through to the isooctanol market; in April, isooctanol prices fell from 9,582 RMB/ton to 8,933 RMB/ton—a monthly decline of 6.77%—thereby weakening cost support for DOP and serving as the primary driver behind its price correction.

Raw Material Isooctanol Prices Experienced Volatile Decline in April

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of April 29, the quoted price for isooctanol stood at 8,866.67 RMB/ton. This represents a volatile decline from the price of 9,266.67 RMB/ton recorded on April 1—a drop of 4.32%. Driven primarily by the correlated movements of crude oil and propylene, as well as shifts in the supply-demand landscape—and further reinforced by a downward shift in the SunSirs price moving average—the market for isooctanol has exhibited a distinct downward trend. Overall, the isooctanol market in April followed a pattern characterized by "high-level volatility, starting strong but ending weak."

Phthalic Anhydride Market Experienced Volatile Decline

According to SunSirs’ Commodity Market Analysis System, as of April 29, the quoted price for OX-based phthalic anhydride stood at 8,966.67 RMB/ton. This represents a volatile decline of 4.78% compared to the price of 9,416.67 RMB/ton recorded on April 1. The easing of geopolitical risks—stemming from ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran—has filtered down to downstream markets; coupled with insufficient follow-through in demand, the price center for phthalic anhydride has shifted noticeably downward. However, numerous upstream OX producers have suspended operations for maintenance, resulting in a severe reduction in OX supply. Consequently, upward price support for OX remains intact; bolstered by this cost support, the potential for further declines in phthalic anhydride prices is limited.

April Market Supply and Demand Analysis for DOP

In April, the supply-demand landscape of the DOP market was characterized by "excess supply and a weak equilibrium in essential demand." On the supply side, operating rates declined—though total output remained ample—while inventory levels were elevated and export volumes limited. On the demand side, essential requirements remained stable, yet new orders were insufficient; purchasing activity was cautious, and downstream sectors remained sluggish. Overall, supply was ample and demand weak, resulting in an imbalance where supply exceeded demand. Consequently, prices faced downward pressure from their currently high levels—being prone to decline rather than rise—and were sustained solely by cost-side support and export activity.

Supply Side: Ample Supply, Inventory Under Pressure

Regarding the supply side, operating rates for DOP units at plasticizer manufacturers in April followed a pattern of "initial stability followed by a decline, with a slight rebound at month-end." At the beginning of the month, the industry-wide operating rate stood between 65% and 69%, with major mainstream producers running at full capacity and supply remaining stable. By mid-month, however—driven by shrinking profit margins and weakening demand—some manufacturers reduced operating loads or undertook maintenance shutdowns, causing the operating rate to drop to approximately 55%. Toward the end of the month, the restart of certain units led to a modest recovery in operating rates to 60%, though this figure remained below the levels observed at the start of the month. Despite the decline in operating rates during April, the combination of previously accumulated inventory and continued effective supply resulted in an overall ample supply situation, with no regional shortages reported. Furthermore, as downstream purchasing activity slowed, manufacturers' inventories continued to rise; this intensified manufacturers' willingness to lower prices in order to move stock, thereby curbing any potential price rebound.

Demand Side: Stable Essential Demand, Insufficient New Orders, Overall Weakness

In April, downstream demand was driven primarily by essential needs, lacking support from new orders. Demand remained steady in fundamental sectors—such as wires and cables, and packaging films—where enterprises maintained replenishment at low levels. However, weighed down by the sluggish real estate market, demand for end-products like PVC pipes and profiles contracted; consequently, some small and medium-sized enterprises in North and East China were forced to halt production or implement temporary shutdowns, further suppressing demand for DOP. Downstream enterprises adopted a cautious procurement stance, generally adhering to a strategy of "avoiding chasing price highs, refraining from stockpiling, and purchasing strictly as needed." As a result, market trading remained sluggish, providing insufficient support for price increases.

Market Overview and Outlook

According to an analyst specializing in plasticizer product data at SunSirs, the market was characterized by strong bullish sentiment in early April—driven by the lingering momentum of the sharp price surge in March—with manufacturers holding firm on prices and traders reluctant to sell. By the end of the month, however, prices had stabilized as the market shifted into a wait-and-see mode; downstream buyers replenished their inventories strictly on an as-needed basis, and a general sense of caution came to dominate the market.

Regarding the market outlook: on the cost front, influenced by the lingering effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, crude oil and propylene prices are expected to remain at elevated levels while experiencing significant volatility. Isooctanol prices may see a slight rebound, while phthalic anhydride prices are expected to maintain their current trajectory; cost-side support remains intact, thereby limiting the downside potential for DOP prices. On the supply front, with some DOP production units undergoing maintenance and subsequently restarting in May, operating rates are expected to recover to 65%, leading to a further easing of supply conditions. On the demand front, the downstream PVC industry remains in its seasonal maintenance period; PVC operating rates are projected to decline to approximately 77%, and with no significant improvement in end-user demand, downstream buyers continue to focus primarily on meeting immediate, essential needs. Consequently, the market remains characterized by an imbalance of supply exceeding demand. In the short term, bearish sentiment persists; traders continue to prioritize reducing inventory positions during price rallies, while manufacturers' willingness to hold up prices has waned. Downstream buyers remain predominantly cautious in their procurement strategies, making it difficult for the market to generate upward momentum. Moving forward, DOP prices are expected to experience slight fluctuations with a general downward trend.

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