In April, the domestic acetone market exhibited a distinct "initial decline followed by a rebound" trajectory. The price trend unfolded across three distinct phases: a retreat from high levels, a sustained downward slide, and a subsequent rebound after bottoming out. The core driving logic shifted gradually from the earlier dual pressures of weakening costs and sluggish demand to a synergistic dynamic characterized by tightening supply, rising costs, and improving demand; correspondingly, market sentiment evolved from a cautious "wait-and-see" stance—prevalent before the holiday—to a more stable and optimistic outlook.
Downtrend Phase (Early to Mid-Month): Suppressed by a Triple Negative Headwind, Prices Continued to Decline
Weakening Cost Support: A correction in international crude oil prices has triggered a significant decline in upstream benzene prices. As a key feedstock for acetone production, the drop in benzene prices has directly eroded the cost support for phenol-acetone production; consequently, manufacturers' limited ability to uphold prices has emerged as the primary catalyst for the downward price trend. Concurrently, operating rates within the phenol-acetone industry remain at high levels, resulting in relatively ample supply—a factor that further exacerbates the pressure stemming from the cost side.
Persistently Weak Demand: Downstream industries are generally operating below capacity; specifically, demand within the key downstream sectors—MMA and Bisphenol A—remains sluggish, and the transmission of demand signals from the end-markets is impeded. The MMA industry is weighed down by weak demand from the end-use coatings and plastics sectors, resulting in declining operating rates and reduced procurement volumes. Although the Bisphenol A industry has maintained a certain level of operating activity, the recovery of its end-markets—real estate and home appliances—lacks momentum; consequently, companies are saddled with elevated finished-product inventories and exhibit little inclination to procure acetone. The market is currently characterized by a "nominal price, no trade" scenario, with the demand side failing to provide any effective support.
Cautious Market Sentiment: Ahead of the May Day holiday, a strong "wait-and-see" atmosphere prevailed among industry participants. To mitigate the risk of post-holiday price declines, traders prioritized offloading inventory; consequently, there was significant room for negotiation on actual transactions, resulting in overall sluggish market activity. Downstream enterprises, meanwhile, adopted a "procure-on-demand, take-as-needed" strategy—reluctant to engage in bulk restocking—which further weighed down market prices.
Rebound Phase (Late Month): Triple Tailwinds Converged; Prices Bottomed Out and Recovered
Supply-side Contraction: The simultaneous shutdown for maintenance or reduced operating rates at multiple phenol-ketone facilities has led to a decrease in total domestic acetone supply, causing the operating rate of the phenol-ketone industry to fall by 2.5 percentage points. Concurrently, insufficient replenishment of imported supplies—with April import volumes showing a marked decline compared to March—has resulted in a continuous drawdown of port inventories and a tightening of spot market liquidity. This gradual improvement in the supply-demand landscape has laid a solid foundation for a price rebound.
Rising Costs: International crude oil prices staged a modest rebound, prompting domestic benzene prices to halt their decline, stabilize, and gradually trend upward. Consequently, the cost-side support for phenol and acetone production has once again become prominent; manufacturers have strengthened their resolve to uphold prices, raising their quotes in unison and triggering a synchronized upward movement in market quotations.
Marginal Improvement in Demand: The downstream Bisphenol A and MMA sectors have entered a cycle of essential restocking, leading to a modest uptick in end-user purchasing demand. Concurrently, traders and manufacturers have joined forces to prop up prices, fostering a gradual improvement in market sentiment; concerned that prices may continue to rise, some downstream enterprises have begun making small-batch inventory replenishments, further fueling the price rebound.
Market outlook
According to SunSirs, the acetone market is expected to exhibit a firm yet volatile trend in the short term (early May). This outlook is driven by continued plant maintenance outages limiting supply, solid cost-side support, and sustained replenishment of essential inventory by downstream sectors. Market participants should monitor for a potential price breakout above the 7,800–8,000 RMB/ton range; however, should demand prove insufficient, prices are likely to retreat and consolidate within the 7,200–7,500 RMB/ton range. For the longer term, key factors to watch include plant maintenance schedules, trends in benzene prices, and end-market demand.
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