Entering April, the domestic ABS market experienced a decline following an earlier rally, with spot prices for most grades seeing significant drops. According to data from SunSirs' "Spot Connect" service, as of April 30, the average price for benchmark ABS products stood at 11,180 RMB/ton—a decrease of 12.43% compared to the beginning of the month.
Supply Levels: Throughout April, maintenance shutdowns within the domestic ABS industry were relatively concentrated, resulting in a noticeable overall reduction in operating rates. During the first half of the month, companies such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Yike Chemical scaled back their production operations. Mid-month saw Dalian Hengli enter a scheduled maintenance period, while Rongsheng Petrochemical increased its operating load. By the end of the month, the industry's overall operating rate hovered around 60%, representing a decline of nearly 10% over the period. Current weekly average output stands close to 130,000 tons, while finished product inventories have risen to nearly 210,000 tons. Looking ahead, short-term forecasts suggest a slight uptick in production volume, ensuring that market supply remains generally ample. Overall, the supply side provided reasonably effective support for spot prices during April.
Cost Factors: At the beginning of April, the situation in the Middle East remained volatile, leading to divergent sentiments among participants in the oil market. By mid-month, the market's core logic shifted rapidly: the previous "geopolitical conflict premium" gave way to expectations of diplomatic de-escalation, compounded by bearish fundamental factors. This shift—combined with four converging negative factors (including a downward revision of supply-demand forecasts by the IEA and a massive surge in API crude oil inventories)—triggered a sharp plunge in international oil prices. Consequently, prices for the three upstream raw materials within the petrochemical chain—including ABS—all fell in unison. Regarding acrylonitrile specifically, although industry operating rates remained low throughout the month and vessel arrivals were at reduced levels, contracting domestic demand and sluggish spot trading dragged down the price center of gravity. The market thus settled into a pattern characterized by weakness on both the supply and demand sides, resulting in declining prices.
The butadiene market continued the downward trend observed in March, with the magnitude of the decline expanding significantly. The primary driving factors centered on loosening cost support and lackluster downstream demand. Even though industry operating rates remained relatively low during this period—and spot supply was generally tight—these factors proved insufficient to offset the downward pressure stemming from weak demand. The industry as a whole exhibited a dynamic of "strong supply versus weak demand," leading to a phase of price correction and retreat.
In the styrene market, prices continued their downward trajectory. On the raw material front, pure benzene prices generally traded within a narrow range throughout the month. In the latter half of the month, supplies of petroleum benzene saw a reduction, while imported sources continued to dwindle; consequently, the domestic supply-demand landscape for pure benzene trended stronger, though it struggled to fully offset the bearish influence stemming from the sharp slump in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, domestic styrene consumption during the month lacked effective drivers, leaving the market with insufficient momentum to sustain its upward trajectory. Nevertheless, around the holiday period, the styrene supply side is scheduled to undergo maintenance and production rate reductions; as a result, the market is expected to continue exhibiting a pattern of high-level volatility in the near term.
Regarding demand: Entering April, operating rates among downstream ABS enterprises leveled off. Consumption within the key terminal sector—electrical appliance casings—remained lackluster, and there was no visible improvement in the profitability of terminal manufacturers. Market sentiment shifted away from the previous month's trend of "chasing gains" and transitioned into a phase of "selling off amidst declines." Inventory replenishment and position-building activities decreased significantly, as traders holding profitable positions offered price concessions to offload stock. Throughout the month, inventories of finished ABS products rose, creating significant resistance for manufacturers attempting to ship goods. Furthermore, buyers exhibited strong resistance toward high-priced supplies, thereby dragging down the overall price center within the trading range. Stockpiling activity at the end of the month was limited; overall, the demand side provided weak support for ABS market performance.
In April, domestic ABS market prices initially rose but subsequently reversed course to decline. Production loads at polymerization plants were slightly reduced, yet market supply remained ample. Cost-side inputs—specifically the "three feedstocks"—all experienced simultaneous price declines. The current ABS market faces a dual bearish pressure stemming from both falling production costs and weak demand. Given the massive scale of existing production capacity, concentrated maintenance shutdowns have had only a limited effect on curbing inventory accumulation. Currently, spot prices are retreating from their previous highs, and market trading activity remains sluggish.
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