According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, MTBE prices fell from 7,210 RMB/ton to 6,387 RMB/ton in April—a decline of 11.42% over the period—while still representing a year-on-year increase of 24.69%. At the beginning of the month, market sentiment weakened significantly, impacted by a sharp drop in international crude oil prices. This downward trend persisted through the middle of the month; unstable geopolitical conditions and continued volatility in international crude oil prices exerted significant downward pressure on the domestic gasoline market. Consequently, MTBE manufacturers faced difficulties in shipping their products, accelerating the decline of MTBE prices toward a market bottom. By the end of the month, as prices gradually reached levels considered acceptable by industry participants, the atmosphere for market inquiries and transactions improved, and overall market activity began to recover.
Cost Side (Crude Oil): In April, international crude oil prices generally trended upward, with the average price rising compared to March. Early in the month, as the U.S. and Iran prepared to hold their first formal talks, market concerns regarding supply risks eased, causing international oil prices to come under pressure and retreat. Mid-month, Iran announced that it would allow commercial vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz during a ceasefire period; with geopolitical tensions subsiding, international oil prices declined. Late in the month, U.S.-Iran talks reached an impasse, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted; the risk of crude oil supply disruptions resurged, driving oil prices to rebound. As of April 29, the settlement price for the June contract of Brent crude oil futures stood at $118.03 per barrel.
Demand Side (Downstream Gasoline): Regarding terminal demand for downstream gasoline products, international crude oil price trends are expected to remain volatile, maintaining a cautious mindset among market participants. Furthermore, given the currently elevated prices for gasoline blending components—such as MTBE and alkylate—industry players remain resistant to high costs and are likely to limit their MTBE purchases to immediate, essential needs. Consequently, the factors influencing MTBE demand present a mixed outlook.
Supply Side: During the month, several large-scale manufacturers experienced temporary shutdowns, while others reduced their plant operating loads, resulting in a reduction in overall supply. Looking ahead to May, some manufacturers that had previously shut down may plan to resume operations; conversely, others have scheduled maintenance plans, and some may potentially reduce their operating loads. On balance, the overall supply of MTBE resources is expected to contract slightly. Thus, the factors influencing the MTBE supply side appear to be supportive of the market. As of the close of trading on April 29, the closing price in the Asian MTBE market rose by $22.10/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices settling at $1,053.98–$1,055.98/ton. In the European MTBE market, the closing price increased by $50.75/ton from the previous session, with FOB ARA prices closing at $1,188.74–$1,189.24/ton. The U.S. MTBE market saw its closing price rise by $50.65/ton compared to the previous day, with FOB Gulf Coast prices settling at $1,254.34–$1,254.69/ton ($354.17–$354.27/gallon).
Market Outlook: Supply-side dynamics are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, while downstream demand remains relatively stable. Given high raw material costs, manufacturers show little inclination to offer significant price concessions; however, due to an oversupply situation, there is a high probability that the market will trend downward. Analysts at SunSirs (Zhengyi She) anticipate that MTBE market prices will continue to decline.
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