Price trend

According to monitoring data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market experienced a volatile downward trend in April 2026. The market witnessed a significant monthly decline and operated under overall pressure. From April 1 to April 29, domestic 1,3-butadiene market prices fell from 18,333.33 RMB/ton to 12,566.67 RMB/ton, representing a 31.45% drop over the period. In summary, the market's downward trajectory this month—and the substantial price decline observed—was primarily driven by the combined impact of three factors: weakening cost support, ample spot supply, and persistently sluggish demand.

Market analysis

Cost Perspective:

In April, the cost support for 1,3-butadiene shifted from strong to weak, emerging as one of the primary drivers behind its price decline. As a byproduct of naphtha cracking for ethylene production, 1,3-butadiene’s price trajectory is closely correlated with those of crude oil and naphtha. At the beginning of the month, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept international crude oil prices at elevated levels; consequently, naphtha costs remained persistently high, providing a robust cost floor for 1,3-butadiene. However, as the situation in the Middle East gradually de-escalated throughout the month, market expectations regarding tight crude oil supplies cooled. International crude oil prices subsequently trended downward amidst volatility, triggering a decline in the prices of naphtha and other ethylene cracking feedstocks. The premium derived from high crude oil prices—which had previously been passed on to 1,3-butadiene—gradually dissipated; as cost-side support for high prices continued to wane, 1,3-butadiene lost a critical upward support factor and came under downward price pressure. As of April 28, the settlement price for the June contract of US WTI crude oil futures stood at $99.93 per barrel, while the settlement price for the June contract of Brent crude oil futures was $111.26 per barrel.

Supply side:

In April, the domestic 1,3-butadiene supply landscape underwent a significant shift, transitioning gradually from a previously tight state to one of abundance. Ample spot availability, coupled with accumulating inventories, exerted further downward pressure on market prices. Although some production units that had previously been idled had not yet fully resumed operations, adjustments in operating rates at Asian ethylene crackers led to an increase in 1,3-butadiene supply as a cracking byproduct. Concurrently, domestic 1,3-butadiene plants raised their operating rates compared to the previous month, resulting in a steady increase in spot output. Furthermore, import arbitrage windows opened up during the month, leading to a concentrated influx of deep-sea cargoes arriving at ports to replenish the domestic spot market. This resulted in a sustained rise in domestic aggregate inventories; by the end of April, stocks at both East China ports and Shandong refineries had risen significantly. The overall pressure from inventory overhang became pronounced, clearly signaling a loose supply environment and further intensifying bearish sentiment within the market.

As of April 28, the listed price for 1,3-butadiene across Sinopec's various sales subsidiaries stands at 12,800 RMB/ton—a reduction of 5,400 RMB/ton compared to the price of 18,200 RMB/ton recorded on March 31.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally; 336 tons had been sold externally at a floor price of 12,300 RMB/ton.

Yantai Wanhua's 200,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with pricing set at 12,900 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

In April, downstream demand for 1,3-butadiene remained persistently weak; limited support from essential consumption—coupled with waning export momentum—emerged as a key factor dragging down prices. Major downstream sectors—such as synthetic rubber (specifically BR and SBR) and ABS—faced squeezed profit margins and incurred losses due to the high cost of 1,3-butadiene feedstock. Consequently, enterprises were compelled to either shut down operations or reduce operating rates. By mid-to-late April, operating loads at BR and SBR facilities had declined year-on-year, slowing the rate of raw material consumption. Downstream companies adopted a cautious procurement stance, largely limiting purchases to immediate, essential needs while actively seeking price concessions, and showed little inclination for bulk restocking. Regarding exports, early April saw heightened domestic enthusiasm for 1,3-butadiene exports, driven by supply-related concerns in the Asian market. However, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased later in the month, downstream manufacturers in regions such as South Korea and Japan reduced their operating rates to contain costs. These buyers subsequently became more cautious in their inquiries and exerted significant downward pressure on prices, resulting in a decline in domestic export transaction prices and a reduction in orders—factors that further exacerbated the imbalance between domestic supply and demand.

According to monitoring data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of April 27, the market for BR in the East China region exhibited a weak, downward trend. While international crude oil prices remained at elevated levels, the cost basis for BR declined; consequently, supplier offering prices were lowered by 300 RMB/ton, and spot market quotations edged slightly lower. Currently, quotations for BR from Daqing, Yangzi, and Qilu range between 16,000 and 16,300 RMB/ton, while certain private-label brands are quoted in the vicinity of 15,900 to 16,100 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

Based on a comprehensive assessment of various bullish and bearish factors—including costs, supply, and demand—the domestic 1,3-butadiene market in May is expected to exhibit a pattern of narrow-range consolidation characterized by weak fluctuations and a gradual deceleration in its downward trend. On the bearish side, inventory pressure on the supply front remains unalleviated, with further import shipments expected to continue arriving; meanwhile, the downstream synthetic rubber and ABS sectors are experiencing a slow recovery in profitability, limiting their operating rates, and firm demand remains insufficient to provide adequate support. On the bullish side, current 1,3-butadiene prices have already fallen to a relatively low level; a rebound in crude oil prices could provide some fundamental support, while some downstream enterprises may engage in opportunistic restocking at these lows, offering a temporary boost to the market. Additionally, lingering geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East could trigger fluctuations in market sentiment. In the short term, the 1,3-butadiene market is expected to be dominated by narrow-range fluctuations; going forward, key factors to monitor include crude oil price trends, as well as downstream operating rates and purchasing activity.

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