Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the PTA market has trended upward with fluctuations since mid-April. As of April 28, the average spot market price for PTA in the East China region stood at 6,807 RMB/ton, representing an increase of 7.43% compared to April 13.

Market analysis

Driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, international crude oil prices have remained firm, with the upward trend providing a boost to market values. On April 27, the settlement price for the June contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $96.37 per barrel, while the settlement price for the June contract of Brent crude oil futures was $108.23 per barrel.

Concurrently, the scale of PTA plant maintenance has expanded significantly; as scheduled maintenance activities are progressively implemented, operating rates have dropped rapidly to around 65%, marking a historical low for this time of year. Specifically, INEOS initiated maintenance on its 1.1 million-ton unit on April 19; Sanfangxiang began maintenance on its 3.2 million-ton unit on April 22; Hengli commenced maintenance on its 2.5 million-ton unit on April 9, with maintenance on another 2.2 million-ton unit starting on April 20; Sichuan Energy Investment began a 60-day maintenance period for its 1 million-ton unit on April 15; and Dushan Energy initiated maintenance on its 3 million-ton unit on April 14. With the increase in scheduled maintenance, a turning point in PTA inventory levels has emerged, and the market has begun to enter a destocking phase. As PTA operating rates decline rapidly, the tightening supply-demand balance is providing support to prices; furthermore, recent U.S. sanctions imposed on a major Dalian-based enterprise—the country's largest domestic producer—could potentially lead to a further reduction in PTA production loads.

Most downstream polyester manufacturers have maintained their established shipping patterns. While buying interest in the end-market—driven by pre-holiday inventory stocking—remains reasonably steady, a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevails across the sector, resulting in a predominantly cautious trading atmosphere. Operating rates for downstream weaving and dyeing facilities continue to decline; consequently, major filament producers are persisting with production cuts to safeguard prices, raising their reduction ratio to 30%. This measure took effect on April 20 and is scheduled to remain in force through the end of the second quarter.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that, in the short term, PTA prices will maintain a relatively strong trajectory, driven by the combined influence of cost factors and market fundamentals. Moving forward, continued attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, and changes in plant operations.

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