According to monitoring data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, prices for both softwood and hardwood pulp continued to exhibit a volatile, downward trend throughout April. Softwood pulp experienced a more significant decline compared to hardwood pulp. As of April 29, the average market price for softwood pulp in the Shandong region stood at 5,083.33 RMB/ton—a decrease of 2.24% compared to the average price on April 1. On the same date, the average market price for hardwood pulp in the Shandong region was 4,593.33 RMB/ton—a decrease of 0.72% compared to the average price on April 1.

Regarding supply: In April, major overseas producing nations had no immediate plans for large-scale production cuts; only a few pulp mills in Finland underwent scheduled maintenance, resulting in a relatively limited impact on global supply. Although the volume of imported wood pulp shipments saw a slight month-over-month decline in March, year-over-year figures remained at a high level, ensuring a continuous replenishment of domestic stock. Furthermore, softwood pulp accounts for a high proportion of inventory at domestic ports; despite a slight reduction in inventory levels in mid-April, the absolute volume remained at a historical high, indicating a slow pace of inventory destocking. As for hardwood pulp, supply dynamics were influenced by events in Indonesia, which triggered a restructuring of global trade flows; consequently, some supply volumes were diverted toward Europe, thereby alleviating pressure on arrivals at Chinese ports. Additionally, while overseas market quotes remained stable in April, the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate led to a slight reduction in import costs, thereby weakening the rigid cost-side support for pulp prices.

Throughout April, domestic port pulp inventories exhibited a fluctuating trend—initially undergoing destocking, followed by restocking—and overall levels remained at a "year-to-date high." On April 9, port inventory stood at 2.306 million tons—a reduction of 46,000 tons compared to the previous period—yet this still represented a 14.5% increase year-over-year. Around April 16, inventory levels remained elevated, and the pattern of ample supply remained unchanged; although some overseas pulp mills were undergoing maintenance, the impact of these cuts on the market was slow to materialize. By April 23, inventory levels had rebounded to 2.357 million tons—an increase of 86,000 tons over the previous week—thereby bringing an end to the three-week consecutive trend of inventory destocking.

Demand Side: April marked a sluggish off-season for market demand; the downstream base paper market weakened across the board, leaving paper mills with razor-thin profit margins and low operating rates. Mills generally limited their purchasing to immediate necessities, showing no inclination to build inventory; instead, most focused primarily on depleting their existing stocks, resulting in light market trading activity. The market has fallen into a vicious cycle characterized by "weak pulp prices, weak paper prices, weak purchasing, and—consequently—even weaker pulp prices."

Futures Market: Throughout April, the benchmark pulp futures contract generally followed a trajectory of "initial decline followed by a rebound, oscillating at low levels, and repeatedly contesting the 5,000 yuan threshold." As of April 29, the benchmark pulp futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) opened at 5,048 yuan/ton, closed at 5,062 yuan/ton, and reached a high of 5,070 yuan/ton; trading volume stood at 189,300 lots, with open interest at 260,800 lots.

Sunsirs Wood Pulp Analyst View: Analysts at Sunsirs believe that the current market trend—characterized by strong supply and weak demand—persists, thereby suppressing any potential rebound in wood pulp prices. Looking ahead, if scheduled maintenance at pulp mills is fully implemented and inventory levels begin to deplete, there may be expectations for a price rebound; however, given the current lack of positive fundamental support on the demand side, spot wood pulp prices are expected to remain in a state of low-level, weak oscillation in the short term.

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