On 28 April, the domestic tin market experienced a precipitous decline, with No. 1 tin ingots plunging by 9,500 RMB/ton in a single day—marking the largest single-day drop of the year. On 29 April, prices remained volatile at low levels, and market sentiment rapidly deteriorated. This sharp decline was triggered by a combination of concentrated profit-taking, a surge in raw material imports, expectations of ample supply, and weak downstream demand, compounded by cautious macroeconomic sentiment, causing tin prices to rapidly give up their previous gains. Based on Business Society’s benchmark prices, customs import and export data, the April supply landscape, and the logic of upstream-downstream price transmission, a comprehensive analysis of this market movement is provided below.

I. Key Price Trends (SunSirs 29 April Benchmark Prices)

1# Tin Ingots

29 April Benchmark Price: 383,210 RMB/ton

Tin Concentrate

29 April Market Price: 277,500 RMB/ton

Compared to 1 April: -3.25%

Compared to 1 January: +7.82%

Following a sharp decline, the spot market has stabilized and is recovering, but the short-term bullish trend has been broken, entering a phase of consolidation and bottoming out.

II. Core Reasons for the Plunge: Concentrated Release of Three-Pronged Pressure

Excessive gains in the preceding period led to a concentrated exit of profit-taking positions

Since April, tin prices have risen by over 15,000 RMB/ton. With substantial profits realized, there was a strong willingness to cash out at high levels, triggering concentrated selling pressure.

A surge in raw material imports has reversed expectations of tight supply

Customs data shows that in March 2026, China imported 18,502.18 tons of tin concentrate, a year-on-year surge of 122.31% and a month-on-month increase of 7.92%; Cumulative imports for January to March stood at 53,446.59 tons, up 98.62% year-on-year. Of this, imports from Myanmar totaled 7,294.49 tons, a year-on-year increase of 223.93%. With the acceleration of production resumption at Myanmar’s mines, the raw material shortage has eased significantly, directly reversing expectations of a supply crunch.

Weak downstream demand leaves little appetite for high-price purchases

Downstream sectors such as electronic solder, PCBs and photovoltaic solder strips are operating at subdued levels, with marked resistance to high-priced tin. Purchasing is driven primarily by immediate needs, with a lack of concentrated restocking, making it difficult for the demand side to support high prices.

III. Customs Import and Export Data: Imports Surge, Exports Weak; Supply-Demand Dynamics Shift Towards Ease

Tin concentrate imports: 18,502 tons in March, up 122.31% year-on-year; January–March: 53,447 tons, up 98.62% year-on-year, with significant increases in supplies from Myanmar and Bolivia.

Refined tin exports: Cumulative exports for January–March: 3,819 tons, down 31.2% year-on-year; March exports: 1,200 tons, down 11.3% month-on-month. Overseas buyers remain cautious, weakening support for exports.

Import structure: Myanmar accounted for 39.4%, Bolivia 19.6% and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 14.3%, with a diversified range of raw material sources and improved supply stability.

IV. April Supply Landscape: Smelter Utilization Recovers, Inventory Pressure Mounts

Capacity and Utilization: Total domestic tin smelting capacity stands at 115,000 tons per annum. In April, utilization rates at smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi recovered to 76.94% and 40.19% respectively. Ample raw material supplies drove output growth, leading to an increase in spot market circulation.

Inventory Changes: Market inventories shifted from a decline to an increase, with major producers seeing a slight build-up in stocks and an increase in warehouse receipts, further limiting the scope for price rebounds.

Supply Dynamics: The market has shifted from raw material shortages and smelting constraints to ample raw materials and rising output, with fundamentals easing from tight to loose.

V. Price Transmission Mechanisms Between Upstream and Downstream Sectors

Raw Materials (Tin Concentrate)

A surge in imports coupled with the resumption of production in Myanmar has led to a concurrent weakening of concentrate prices. Processing fees have rebounded slightly, alleviating pressure on smelting costs and weakening support for tin ingots.

Midstream (Tin Ingots)

Amid ample supply and sluggish demand, prices have corrected rapidly. The basis has narrowed, with the market shifting from a premium to a flat or slight discount. Trading activity remains subdued, with traders offering discounts to move stock.

Downstream (Solder, PCBs, PV Solder Strips)

The sharp fall in raw material prices has significantly reduced production costs, easing cost pressures for electronics manufacturers and PV firms, which is positive for end-user profitability. However, a strong wait-and-see sentiment persists in the downstream sector, with purchases primarily driven by immediate needs, hindering the pass-through of price increases.

VI. Impact of Market Conditions and Outlook

In the short term, the sharp decline has alleviated panic sentiment, with tin prices entering a trading range of 378,000–390,000 RMB/ton. The RMB 380,000 mark serves as a key support level; a breach of this level would open the way for a decline to RMB 375,000.

Impact on the supply chain: Smelters’ margins are contracting, whilst cost benefits are emerging for downstream players. Industry profits are being redistributed, and the procurement sector has entered a phase of cautious negotiation.

This sharp decline in tin prices is the result of a convergence of factors: excessive prior gains, a surge in raw material imports and weak demand. It marks a shift in the market from a strong uptrend to a period of consolidation and correction.

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