Price trend

According to data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of April 27, the average quoted price for premium-grade DMF among domestic manufacturers stood at 5,810 RMB/ton. Over the past week, DMF market prices exhibited a distinct downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the average market price remained within a relatively stable range; however, as the week progressed, prices steadily declined. By the weekend, mainstream market prices for DMF had fallen by approximately 300–400 RMB/ton compared to the start of the week. Regional price disparities were also quite pronounced: prices in East China experienced a relatively significant decline, whereas prices in South China remained comparatively firm, albeit still registering a certain degree of downward movement.

Cause Analysis

Market Supply: Last week, the overall operating rate among domestic DMF manufacturers remained at a high level. With the resumption of production at several facilities that had previously undergone maintenance, market supply increased further; specifically, operating rates at some large-scale enterprises were sustained at over 80%, resulting in continued mounting pressure on market supply.

Raw Material Costs: Raw Material Prices—The price trends of methanol and liquid ammonia will directly impact the production costs and market prices of DMF. If raw material prices continue to decline, DMF prices will have greater room for further reduction; conversely, if raw material prices stabilize or rise, the extent of any decline in DMF prices may be somewhat limited.

Downstream Demand: Polyurethane Industry: As the primary downstream sector for DMF, the polyurethane industry continued to experience weak demand last week. Sluggish growth in end-market demand for polyurethane products resulted in low operating rates among manufacturers; consequently, companies reduced their procurement of DMF in an effort to control costs, thereby exerting significant downward pressure on market prices. Leather Industry: The leather industry faces similar difficulties; strict enforcement of environmental regulations has restricted production for some leather manufacturers, while intense market competition and sluggish product sales have led to a substantial decline in their demand for DMF, further dampening overall market demand. Pharmaceutical and Agrochemical Industries: Demand for DMF from the pharmaceutical and agrochemical sectors remains relatively stable, though these sectors account for a comparatively small share of the market. Production activities in both industries proceeded largely as normal last week, showing no significant fluctuations in DMF demand; however, they were unable to provide substantial support to the overall market demand.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs specializing in DMF believe that DMF prices are likely to continue their downward trend in the short term. The current market situation—characterized by an oversupply—is unlikely to change significantly in the near future, while downstream demand is also unlikely to see any marked improvement within this timeframe. Furthermore, should raw material prices continue to fall—thereby further reducing production costs—DMF prices could face continued downward pressure.

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