On 24 April 2026, the United States added Hengli Petrochemical to its SDN sanctions list, directly impacting its core production capacity of 5.2 million tons of PX and 16.6 million tons of PTA. Compounded by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and domestic supply-demand imbalances, the PX-PTA-MEG polyester industry chain experienced severe volatility, leading to a profound restructuring of price transmission and the supply landscape.

I. Export Data: PTA Volumes Surge, PX Imports Contract, MEG Shows Steady Growth

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, polyester chain imports and exports exhibited structural divergence between January and March 2026:

PTA Exports: Cumulative exports from January to March totaled 923,000 tons, up 41.2% year-on-year (compared to 654,000 tons in the same period of 2025); March alone saw 387,000 tons , up 58.5% year-on-year, setting a quarterly record high. The primary destinations were Turkey, Vietnam and Egypt, with overseas capacity shortages underpinning procurement demand.

PX Imports: Cumulative imports for January–March totaled 2.158 million tons, down 8.7% year-on-year (compared to 2.364 million tons in the same period of 2025); March imports stood at 682,000 tons, down 12.3% year-on-year, as international procurement was restricted following sanctions and domestic operating rates were reduced, leading to a contraction in import demand.

MEG Exports: Cumulative exports for January–March totaled 35,000 tons, up 18.9% year-on-year; imports stood at 1.876 million tons, down 5.2% year-on-year, with import volumes declining due to maintenance at Middle Eastern facilities.

II. Capacity and Supply Landscape Since April: Sanctions Catalyze Contraction, Maintenance Work Concentrated

1. PX: Operating rates decline, with maintenance overlapping with sanctions

Domestic effective PX capacity stands at approximately 32 million tons per annum. The operating rate in April was 80.8%, up 0.6% month-on-month; however, Hengli Refining & Chemical reduced its operating load following sanctions, compounded by scheduled maintenance totaling over 5 million tons in May at Hainan Refining & Chemical, Yangzi Petrochemical and others, leading to expectations of tightening supply. The PX operating rate in Asia stood at 66.2%. Plants in Japan and South Korea continued to reduce operating rates due to insufficient naphtha supplies from the Middle East, with limited import replenishment.

2. PTA: Operating Rates Plunge, Supply Contracts Sharply

Domestic total PTA capacity exceeds 70 million tons per annum. In April, Hengli’s 2.2 million-ton, Sanfangxiang’s 3.2 million-ton and Ineos’s 1.1 million-ton facilities were shut down for maintenance, whilst Yisheng Dahua reduced its operating rate by 3.75 million tons. The industry-wide operating rate plummeted to 65%, down 7.2% month-on-month, reaching a three-year low. The knock-on effects of sanctions, combined with seasonal maintenance, have widened the short-term supply gap.

3. MEG: High maintenance rates for coal-based plants; imports remain tight

Domestic MEG capacity stands at approximately 22 million tons per annum. In April, coal-based plants underwent concentrated maintenance, with an operating rate of 58%; oil-based plants were affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to tight import supplies. Port inventories remained at a low of 650,000 tons, providing strong support on the supply side.

III. Price Trends and Volatility: PX-PTA Strong Rebound, MEG Volatile but Firm

1. PX: Sanctions + Cost Synergy Drive Prices Higher

On 28 April, the CFR China price for PX stood at US$1,275 per ton, up 8.2% from early April; the domestic spot price was RMB9,700 per ton, with a monthly price fluctuation exceeding 12%. Key Drivers: Sanctions have triggered supply concerns, whilst the situation in the Middle East has pushed up crude oil and naphtha prices. The PX-naphtha spread has narrowed to $238/ton, providing dual support from both costs and fundamentals.

2. PTA: Driven by Supply Contraction, Prices Rise Sharply

On 28 April, domestic PTA spot prices stood at 5,834 RMB/ton, up 5.7% from early April, with the processing fee recovering to 650 RMB/ton. Supply contraction is the core driver; coupled with inventory drawdowns driven by increased exports, market expectations of a supply shortfall in May have intensified, making prices more likely to rise than fall.

3. MEG: Tight supply-demand balance, trading with a bullish bias

On 28 April, the spot price of MEG stood at 4,641 RMB/ton, fluctuating by ±3% over the month. Low port inventories and reduced imports are supporting prices, but weak downstream polyester demand is limiting the scope for a rebound, resulting in an overall pattern of ‘strong expectations, weak reality’.

IV. The Logic Behind Price Fluctuations in Upstream and Downstream Markets: Sanctions as the Trigger, with Supply-Demand and Cost Factors Converging

1. Upstream (Crude Oil – Naphtha – PX): Dual Drivers of Price Rises – Geopolitics and Sanctions

Crude oil prices have remained at elevated levels due to tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, whilst naphtha cracking spreads have strengthened, pushing up PX production costs. Sanctions against Hengli Refining & Chemical have led to expectations of tighter PX supply; coupled with reduced operating rates at Japanese and South Korean plants, PX prices rebounded first, with the impact passing through to the PTA segment.

2. Midstream (PTA): Supply Contraction Dominates, Exports Divert Inventory

The core driver of PTA prices is supply contraction: sanctions and concentrated maintenance have led to a significant drop in operating rates. Coupled with a 41.2% year-on-year surge in exports, inventory drawdown has accelerated, processing margins have recovered, and prices have risen strongly. However, the downstream polyester sector is in its off-season, with operating rates remaining at a low of 75%, limiting the extent of PTA price increases.

3. Downstream (Polyester – Textiles): Weak demand, transmission hindered

Inventories are accumulating across the polyester sector (filament, staple fiber, bottle-grade chips). Textile enterprises have little inclination to restock during the off-season and are resistant to high-priced raw materials. The rise in PTA and MEG prices is struggling to be passed on downstream, squeezing polyester margins and, in turn, constraining the scope for further raw material price increases. Only PET flakes have shown relative price resilience due to overseas supply shortages and a surge in export orders.

4. Export dynamics: Overseas shortages + domestic price advantage

The primary drivers of the sharp rise in PTA exports are: unstable operations at Turkey’s SASA plant, insufficient capacity in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and underlying overseas demand; coupled with low domestic PTA prices and export tax rebates, the cost-effectiveness is outstanding, prompting enterprises to proactively increase exports to alleviate domestic sales pressure.

V. Market Outlook: Short-term Strength, Persistent Mid-term Contradictions

In the short term, the triple boost of sanctions, plant maintenance and geopolitical disruptions supports firm PX-PTA prices, whilst MEG is expected to trend upwards amid low inventories; the supply gap in May may widen further. In the medium term, caution is warranted regarding persistently weak downstream demand, poor price pass-through, the recovery of overseas capacity and the diminishing impact of sanctions, which could lead to prices retreating from current highs.

Overall, the sanctions against Hengli Petrochemical have served as the catalyst for a restructuring of the polyester chain market, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the short term and driving a price rebound; however, the industry’s core contradiction of ‘high capacity and weak demand’ remains unchanged, limiting the scope for price recovery. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include the implementation of maintenance schedules, the sustainability of exports, and the pace of recovery in downstream demand.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on April 29, the SunSirs benchmark price for PX stood at 9,600.00 RMB/ton, representing a decrease of 1.03% compared to the beginning of the month (9,700.00 RMB/ton).

The SunSirs benchmark price for PTA was 6,807.16 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.67% compared to the beginning of the month (6,761.93 RMB/ton).

The benchmark price for ethylene glycol was 5,100.00 RMB/ton, a decline of 0.88% compared to the beginning of the month (5,145.33 RMB/ton).

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