Price trend

According to monitoring by the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of April 28, the price of 0# zinc stood at 23,768 RMB/ton—a decline of 0.78% compared to the price of 23,954 RMB/ton recorded on April 21.

On April 28, prices plummeted by 516 RMB/ton in a single day—completely erasing this week's gains and hitting a two-week low—marking the largest single-day decline recorded since the market rebound in March.

Driven by Fundamentals and News Flow

The recent sharp decline was the result of a confluence of four bearish factors: First, a "demand vacuum" effect emerged ahead of the holiday; with the May Day holiday approaching, downstream galvanizing, die-casting, and zinc oxide enterprises universally halted production or reduced operating loads in advance, raw material procurement came to a near standstill, and trading activity in the spot market ground to a halt. Second, there was a concentrated wave of profit-taking from positions established at high levels; since the rebound began in March, zinc prices had cumulatively risen by over 7.5%, nearing a three-and-a-half-year high—leaving long-position holders with substantial profits—and a rush to exit positions for risk-aversion purposes ahead of the holiday triggered a sell-off panic. Third, the supply-demand landscape underwent a substantive reversal; the latest data from the ILZSG indicates that in February, the global market for refined zinc shifted from a deficit of 21,900 tons to a surplus of 49,600 tons, while the full-year surplus forecast for 2026 was revised upward to 175,000 tons. Fourth, macroeconomic risk appetite retreated; with the Federal Reserve's May monetary policy meeting approaching and the U.S. Dollar Index trending stronger, industrial metals as a sector came under broad pressure.

Market Outlook

In the short term, zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak, corrective trend. If downstream demand fails to recover effectively following the May Day holiday, prices are likely to test the 23,500 RMB/ton level; the medium-term downside target is set at 23,000 RMB/ton. On the upside, a high-volume breakout above the 24,000 RMB/ton resistance level would be required to reverse the current short-term bearish trend.

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