According to monitoring data from SunSirs, since the beginning of April, the soybean meal market has consistently weakened, experiencing a continuous downward trend with prices falling by over 9%. On April 1, the average market price for soybean meal stood at 3,250 RMB/ton; by April 27, this average had dropped to 2,954 RMB/ton—a decline of 9.11%.

Supply Side: A combination of bumper harvests in South America and a massive surge in arrivals at domestic ports has resulted in a concentrated release of supply-side pressure. The soybean harvest in Brazil is now approximately 93% complete. Domestic arrivals of imported soybeans are projected to reach 7.93 million tons in April and are expected to surge to 11.5 million tons in May; consequently, import volumes for the second quarter may set a new record for the period.

Futures Market: Factors such as bumper soybean harvests in South America—leading to ample global supply—along with ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and persistently high international crude oil prices, have exerted an indirect influence on market sentiment. As a result, the downward momentum in soybean meal futures has begun to slow.

Demand Side: The livestock sector is suffering from deep financial losses, resulting in persistently weak demand for feed. Pig Farming: Pig prices have plummeted to 8.67 RMB/kg (a ten-year low). Self-breeding and self-rearing operations are facing average losses of approximately 450 RMB per head, prompting farms to reduce herd sizes and accelerate the culling of sows, thereby causing a sharp decline in soybean meal demand. Poultry Farming: Prices for day-old chicks and ducklings remain depressed. Feed manufacturers have reduced the proportion of soybean meal in their feed formulations by 1% to 3%, increasing the use of substitutes (such as cottonseed meal and rapeseed meal), which further squeezes demand for soybean meal.

Procurement Strategy: Feed manufacturers are maintaining a "safety stock" of approximately 20 days' supply, adopting a "buy-as-needed" approach. They remain cautious regarding the procurement of long-term contracts (for future delivery), while basis levels continue to weaken.

Market Sentiment: A bearish sentiment currently dominates the market, with traders actively working to reduce their inventories. Participants across the entire industry chain generally hold a bearish outlook for the near future; traders are trimming their positions to mitigate the risk of price declines, while oilseed crushing plants are actively pre-selling long-term basis contracts and continuing to offer price concessions.

In Summary: On the supply and demand front, May is expected to witness a massive influx of imported soybeans, ensuring that supply remains ample. While demand remains weak, the futures market still retains some potential for upward movement. From a technical analysis perspective, it appears that the magnitude of the decline in soybean meal prices will narrow in May, while the market demonstrates strong underlying momentum for a future rebound. Consequently, the soybean meal market in May is expected to be characterized primarily by wide-ranging fluctuations, with prices projected to hover between 3,000 and 3,200 RMB per ton.

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