As we enter late April, the glyphosate market is characterized by a tug-of-war between “strong cost support” and “heavy selling pressure from distributors.”
Data from Zhongnong Lihua Active Ingredients shows that as of April 26, 2026, bolstered by solid cost support from yellow phosphorus’s high-level consolidation, factory-gate quotes for 97% glyphosate active ingredient held firm at the 38,000 RMB/ton mark, while 95% products were quoted at 35,500 RMB/ton, demonstrating significant resilience against price declines.
However, concentrated selling by traders seeking to recoup capital and hedge against future market risks has flooded the market with low-priced inventory, pushing the actual transaction price center downward. Bullish and bearish forces are locked in a tug-of-war at key price levels, causing the market to enter a phase of high-level volatility characterized by “a ceiling above and a floor below,” resulting in a stalemate of high-level consolidation.
Cost Floor: High-Level Consolidation in Yellow Phosphorus, Firm Quotations from Manufacturers
Yellow phosphorus prices at the raw material level have remained at high levels, establishing a solid cost floor for glyphosate.
With this support, major manufacturers have maintained a cautious strategy of holding prices, keeping their quotation systems stable. The quoted price for 95% glyphosate technical grade stands at 35,500 RMB/ton, while the 97% high-end product holds firm at the key price level of 38,000 RMB/ton.
Consequently, despite low-price disruptions in the distribution channel, cost rigidity limits downside potential, and manufacturers remain resolute in their commitment to maintaining prices.
Dumping Pressure: Channel Cash-Out Disruptions Shift Transaction Prices Lower
The core pressure in the current market stems from “dumping and cash-out” activities in the trading sector.
Industry insiders indicate that as we enter late April, driven by a slowdown in domestic sales, weak external demand, and uncertainty regarding future market conditions, most traders have an urgent need to recover capital and have begun a pattern of price cuts and inventory liquidation. A large volume of low-priced spot goods flooding the market has caused the actual transaction price to shift downward, widening the room for price negotiation. Downstream buyers are reluctant to purchase during price declines, with procurement primarily consisting of small batches and short-term orders, and a strong sense of caution prevails. This has, to some extent, suppressed further price increases.
Bulls and bears locked in a high-level tug-of-war; volatile market conditions persist
Looking ahead, the glyphosate market is expected to continue its high-level tug-of-war between “cost support” and “selling pressure” in the short term.
It will take time to clear channel inventories, and the pressure from inventory liquidation will continue to limit upside potential while intensifying market volatility and divergence. However, with the cost support from yellow phosphorus remaining intact, the scope for significant price declines is also limited. The market is likely to experience wide-range fluctuations around current price levels, and future trends will depend on the progress of channel inventory clearance and marginal changes in downstream demand. Key attention should be paid to traders’ inventory digestion and the pace of recovery in downstream essential procurement.
SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.
