Price Trends

The domestic ferrosilicon market exhibited a price trend characterized by "sideways consolidation in the first half of the week, followed by a unilateral upward surge in the second half." During the week, prices experienced a single, sharp upward spike on the 23rd, while remaining stable on all other trading days; this concentrated and distinct pattern of appreciation marked an end to the period of sideways trading that had preceded it. According to data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System—specifically regarding the ferrosilicon market (Grade: FeSi75-B; Particle Size: Natural Lumps) in the Ningxia region—prices remained stable at 5,410 RMB/ton from April 20 to 22, with daily price fluctuations holding at 0.00% and overall market sentiment leaning toward a "wait-and-see" attitude. On April 23, prices jumped 0.71% to 5,448 RMB/ton, recording the largest single-day increase of the week. On April 24, prices held steady at 5,448 RMB/ton; the cumulative weekly increase stood at 0.71%, effectively shifting the price center upward from 5,410 RMB/ton to 5,448 RMB/ton, and completing a net weekly gain of 38 RMB/ton.

Influencing Factors

Upstream Semi-coke Market: In the major production regions, market quotations for semi-coke have remained stable with an upward trend. Mainstream prices for small and medium-sized grades are holding steady within the 900–920 RMB/ton range. Supported by the cost of raw coal, semi-coke producers demonstrate a strong inclination to maintain current price levels. Operating rates among semi-coke enterprises remain around 75%; consequently, overall supply is relatively tight. Compounded by production restrictions and maintenance shutdowns at certain facilities, ferro-silicon producers are facing increased difficulties in procuring raw materials. With no immediate room for significant decline on the cost front, this situation is indirectly driving ferro-silicon prices upward.

Demand Overview: The downstream demand side is characterized by "stable essential demand coupled with the release of restocking demand." End-User Demand: Downstream steel mills maintain high operating rates, and order volumes in the finished steel market are showing signs of recovery; consequently, steel mills' essential procurement of ferrosilicon remains stable, with no signs of significant volume reductions. Trader Stockpiling: Rising prices have bolstered traders' willingness to restock; some traders have proactively locked in prices to build inventory, leading to increased trading activity in the spot market. The demand side is transitioning from a "buy-as-needed" approach to "active stockpiling," thereby creating positive feedback that supports prices.

Inventory Status: Overall industry inventory levels currently sit within a reasonable-to-low range. Inventory in Major Production Regions: In key production hubs such as Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, ferrosilicon manufacturers have not experienced any significant inventory accumulation; production remains primarily order-driven, and the pace of active inventory reduction remains steady. Some manufacturers have production schedules booked through May, resulting in tight availability of spot market resources. Inventory in Circulation: Inventory held by ports and traders remains at low levels. As prices rise, traders are becoming increasingly reluctant to sell, leading to a further tightening of circulating supply in the market; consequently, the downward pressure on prices typically exerted by inventory levels has diminished.

Steel Mill Procurement Update: In late April, the bidding prices for ferrosilicon set by major steel mills were raised compared to the previous period—a trend consistent with the upward trajectory of spot market prices. Steel mills demonstrated a reasonable level of acceptance, and these bidding prices served to bolster the spot market. Procurement volumes remained largely stable relative to the previous period, showing no significant decline; steel mills maintained a steady pace of purchasing, and there were no instances of aggressive price squeezing. Consequently, market tensions have eased, providing a stabilizing support for prices.

Market outlook

In the short term, the ferrosilicon market is likely to maintain a trend of strong, volatile fluctuations, characterized by the simultaneous presence of both supportive and downward-pressure factors. Supportive factors include the rigidity of upstream semi-coke costs, low inventory levels among producers, and rising procurement prices from steel mills—multiple elements collectively driving prices upward. Potential downward pressures stem from the lack of sustained demand from downstream steel mills, the increased supply resulting from production resumptions in major producing regions, and the impact of macroeconomic policy fluctuations on market sentiment. Key areas to monitor include trends in semi-coke prices, shifts in the procurement pace of steel mills, and the progress of production resumptions among enterprises. If subsequent steel mill procurement volumes and prices rise in tandem, this could drive prices to explore further upward territory; conversely, if demand falls short of expectations, prices may enter a phase of high-level consolidation and fluctuation.

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