Price trend
According to monitoring data from SunSirs, copper prices last week were characterized primarily by wide fluctuations. As of the 24th, the price of copper stood at 102,618 RMB/ton—down 0.28% from the beginning of the week, but up 31.36% year-on-year.
According to the weekly price fluctuation chart from SunSirs, over the past three months, copper prices declined for seven weeks and rose for six weeks; last week, copper prices experienced a slight decline.
LME Copper Inventories
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventories experienced a slight decline. As of the end of the week, LME copper stocks stood at 396,000 tonnes, down 0.61% from the beginning of the week.
On the macroeconomic front: The preliminary U.S. Manufacturing PMI for April surged directly to 54.0—not only far exceeding expectations but also hitting a nearly four-year high. What does this signify? It indicates that the U.S. economy is running red-hot, rendering any urgent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve completely unnecessary. Employment data also remains remarkably robust, with initial jobless claims showing only a marginal uptick. In immediate response, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded sharply, closing in on the 99 mark, while U.S. equities closed lower across the board. For dollar-denominated non-ferrous metals, this undoubtedly dealt a heavy blow.
Supply Side: The acid shortage issues in Chile and the Democratic Republic of the Congo continue to intensify, while the accident at Indonesia's Grasberg mine has cast a shadow over the recovery of production capacity in the second half of the year. Although news of the resumption of operations at Zambia's Luanshya copper mine offers a glimmer of relief, the ICSG's forecast of a reversal in the global surplus indicates that the underlying condition of a tight supply-demand balance remains unchanged.
On the demand side: Traditional sectors are showing signs of fatigue, and the consumption momentum typically associated with the "Golden March and Silver April" season has proven lackluster. Traditional consumption segments—such as real estate, construction engineering, infrastructure development, and white goods—have exhibited sluggish performance. Given their limited profit margins, these industries struggle to absorb the immense pressure of raw material costs, which have soared to over 100,000 units; consequently, their capacity to drive copper consumption remains extremely limited. However, the explosive growth within emerging sectors is now stepping in to fill this gap. Data from the International Energy Agency indicates that global additions to photovoltaic power generation are leading the renewable energy sector. This trend—combined with the domestic construction boom in AI computing centers, a wave of capacity expansion in the PCB industry, and the robust growth in exports of the "New Three" products (in the first quarter, exports of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells surged by 77.5%, 50.4%, and 30.5%, respectively)—has opened up new growth poles for copper consumption. Furthermore, transaction volumes for both new and pre-owned homes across 10 key cities saw a month-on-month increase last week, signaling a faint glimmer of recovery within the real estate sector.
Market outlook
In summary: Copper prices are currently caught in a tug-of-war between "strong expectations" and "weak fundamentals." Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of a copper supply surplus in 2026, yet cautions against potential supply risks stemming from a shortage of sulfuric acid. On the upside, prices are capped by spot market participants' reluctance to chase high valuations and by a strong U.S. dollar; on the downside, they are underpinned by tight mine-side supply and geopolitical risks. Consequently, the market lacks the fundamental basis for a unilateral surge or plunge. Looking ahead, copper prices are highly likely to experience broad-range volatility in the short term.
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