Price Trends

In April, domestic PX market prices edged lower; the average price stood at 9,700 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 9,600 RMB/ton at the end of the month—a decline of 1.03%—while rising 41.18% year-on-year.

Crude oil prices slided; cost support collapsed

Due to the truce and peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, crude oil prices trended downward mid-month; this subsequently drove down naphtha prices, lowered the cost base for PX feedstock, and caused PX to lose its core market support. Furthermore, the narrowing spread between PX and naphtha exacerbated corporate losses, further dampening the willingness to offer quotes and leading to a downward trend in the overall PX market.

PTA and polyester have weakened, exhibiting clear negative feedback

In April, multiple PTA production units underwent maintenance, leading to a decline in domestic operating rates and a reduction in essential PX procurement. The downstream textile and apparel export sector faced headwinds from tariffs, characterized by a shortage of export orders and high domestic inventory levels; consequently, weaving activity slowed down. Polyester manufacturers maintained a strategy of purchasing only to meet immediate operational needs, refraining from stockpiling. This negative feedback loop—propagating from the downstream sector all the way back to PX—has resulted in a weakening of overall market sentiment.

Domestic production remained stable, while import arrivals were concentrated, leading to rising inventory pressure

In April, domestic PX facilities underwent minimal maintenance; consequently, the industry operating rate remained steady at approximately 80%, ensuring a stable supply. PX imports rose month-on-month in March, with a concentrated influx of arrivals at ports in early April; this led to a rebound in port inventories, and the resulting abundance of spot supply exerted downward pressure on prices. Overall PX operating rates across Asia remained high, and the smooth flow of goods within the region intensified competition in the spot market.

Market outlook

In the short term, the PX market is expected to exhibit a predominantly strong and volatile trend, characterized by heightened fluctuations and a tendency to rise rather than fall. Key factors to watch include whether geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East subside and the status of shipping resumption through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the progress of operating rate reductions and maintenance activities at Asian refineries, alongside the recovery of feedstock supplies.

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