With domestic cement demand remaining sluggish and prices fluctuating at low levels, overseas markets—driven by high demand and high profit margins—have emerged as the industry’s new growth engine. Since the start of this year, cement companies have significantly accelerated their expansion into overseas markets, with export volumes surging year-on-year and overseas production capacity being rapidly established. The global cement supply landscape is rapidly evolving from a ‘China-dominated’ structure towards a dual structure characterized by ‘domestic stabilization and overseas expansion’.

I. Export Data: Year-on-Year Surge This Year, Concentrated Release of Overseas Demand

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to March 2026, cumulative exports of cement and clinker nationwide reached 6.1976 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 196.3%; of this, cement exports amounted to 1.9303 million tons, up 65.12% year-on-year, whilst clinker exports stood at 4.2673 million tons, surging by 1,298.99% year-on-year. Exports in March alone exceeded 3 million tons, setting a new record high for the same period in history.

During the same period in 2025 (January–March), exports of cement and clinker totaled just 2.092 million tons, whilst full-year exports reached 11.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 118%. Of this, clinker exports amounted to 5.15 million tons, surging by 1,392% year-on-year. Exports in the first quarter of this year have already reached 52.9% of last year’s total, with growth far exceeding expectations as pent-up overseas demand is being released. Export destinations are primarily Africa, Central Asia and Southeast Asia, with countries such as Nigeria, South Africa and Vietnam accounting for over 60% of the total.

II. Current Production Capacity: Domestic Contraction, Overseas Expansion – A Second Front Takes Shape

1. Domestic Capacity: Output Continues to Decline, Inventories Remain High

In 2025, national cement output stood at 1.693 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, marking the lowest level since 2010. Production in January–February 2026 stood at 178 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, but remained at a low level. With companies proactively limiting production and increasing maintenance activities, capacity utilization rates remained between 65% and 70%, whilst persistently high inventory levels continued to suppress price growth potential.

2. Overseas Capacity: Market Leaders Accelerate Expansion, Exceeding 100 Million Tons

By the end of 2025, domestic cement enterprises had commissioned 92 clinker production lines overseas, with a combined capacity exceeding 102 million tons—a year-on-year increase of 17.01%, equivalent to 6% of total domestic capacity. Hua Xin Building Materials has overseas capacity of 26.6 million tons, Conch Cement 16.46 million tons, and Taiwan Cement 18.04 million tons; leading enterprises have established large-scale operations in Africa, Central Asia and Southeast Asia. In the first quarter of 2026, overseas projects by companies such as Hua Xin and Conch came on stream in rapid succession, adding over 8 million tons of new capacity, with overseas capacity becoming a core driver of earnings growth. Recent rumors suggest that three Chinese companies are simultaneously bidding for the cement business of a Brazilian steel giant.

III. Price Fluctuations: Domestic Prices Fluctuating at Low Levels, Supported by High Overseas Margins

1. Domestic Prices: Supply-Demand Imbalance, Price Pressure

Since the start of 2026, domestic cement prices have followed a trend of “volatile decline and hovering at low levels”. On 24 April, the national average price for P.O42.5 cement stood at RMB412 per ton, down 3.2% from the start of the year and 12.5% year-on-year. The core drivers are weak demand and oversupply: a slowdown in real estate and infrastructure investment has led to insufficient downstream demand; production cuts by companies have failed to keep pace with the decline in demand, resulting in high inventory levels and sustained downward pressure on prices.

2. Overseas Prices: Strong Essential Demand, Significant Premiums

In regions such as Africa and Central Asia, the average cement price reaches USD 110–144 per ton (approximately RMB 800–1,050 per ton), which is 2–3 times the domestic price. The gross profit per ton exceeds RMB 400, far higher than the domestic gross profit level of RMB 50–80. High profit margins are driving companies to accelerate their expansion overseas, with overseas markets becoming a ‘second growth curve’ for profits.

IV. Supply Landscape and Price Dynamics: Global Restructuring, Driven by Costs and Demand

1. Supply Landscape: From ‘China-centric’ to ‘Global Diversification’

Over the past decade, China’s cement production capacity accounted for over 50% of the global total, with exports primarily consisting of spot trade. Today, domestic capacity contraction and overseas capacity expansion, coupled with a surge in export volumes, have reshaped the global cement supply landscape: China is now both the largest producer and a major exporter; Africa and Central Asia have emerged as new growth poles for production capacity; and Chinese enterprises are dominating overseas markets, intensifying international competition.

2. Dynamics of Price Fluctuations in Upstream and Downstream Sectors: Cost Support and Diversifying Demand

Downstream, domestic demand from the property and infrastructure sectors remains sluggish, putting pressure on prices; overseas, however, accelerated urbanization and robust infrastructure investment have created inelastic demand, keeping prices firm.

Exports: The price differential between low-cost domestic supplies and high-price overseas markets, combined with policy support from the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative, has driven sustained growth in export volumes. This has alleviated domestic inventory pressure and indirectly supported domestic prices.

V. Summary and Outlook

The current pattern of “weak domestic recovery and strong overseas growth” in the cement industry has been established, with overseas expansion becoming the core pathway for enterprises to break through domestic bottlenecks and achieve growth. In the short term, domestic prices are expected to remain at low levels with some volatility, whilst export volumes will continue to grow at a high rate.

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